{"id":116309,"date":"2025-06-20T09:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-06-20T13:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/?post_type=ftm_article&#038;p=116309"},"modified":"2025-06-20T08:37:03","modified_gmt":"2025-06-20T12:37:03","slug":"agi-economy","status":"publish","type":"ftm_article","link":"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/artificial-intelligence\/agi-economy","title":{"rendered":"The AGI economy is coming faster than you think"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>OpenAI CEO Sam Altman <a href=\"https:\/\/blog.samaltman.com\/reflections\">said<\/a> in January that his company believes 2025 may be the year \u201cthe first AI agents &#8216;join the workforce&#8217; and materially change the output of companies.\u201d<br><br>In a recent <a href=\"https:\/\/www.axios.com\/2025\/05\/28\/ai-jobs-white-collar-unemployment-anthropic\">interview with Axios<\/a>, Dario Amodei \u2014 current CEO of AI startup Anthropic and former VP of research at OpenAI \u2014 made a bold prediction for how that AI integration could affect the people already in the workforce: In the next one to five years, AI could eliminate 50% of entry-level white-collar jobs and spike unemployment 10\u201320%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Tech CEOs aren\u2019t the only ones predicting that AI\u2019s impact on the economy will be huge. Investors, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.imf.org\/en\/Blogs\/Articles\/2024\/01\/14\/ai-will-transform-the-global-economy-lets-make-sure-it-benefits-humanity\">financial institutions<\/a>, and macro forecasters have all converged on the same basic storyline: AI\u2019s impact is going to be big, it\u2019s going to happen fast, and it\u2019s going to be disruptive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But how will the disruption play out?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-charting-the-disruption\">Charting the disruption<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>We likely have four options, as shown in the table below. The horizontal axis represents how the gains from AI will be distributed: broadly or among a concentrated group. The vertical axis represents the speed of AI adoption: rapid or gradual.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"3201\" height=\"3201\" src=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/AGI-Economy.jpg\" alt=\"A 2x2 matrix titled &quot;Distribution of the Gains,&quot; categorizing economic outcomes of AGI adoption by pace (rapid or gradual) and distribution (broad or concentrated).\" class=\"wp-image-116314\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/AGI-Economy.jpg 3201w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/AGI-Economy.jpg?resize=768,768 768w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/AGI-Economy.jpg?resize=1536,1536 1536w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/AGI-Economy.jpg?resize=2048,2048 2048w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/AGI-Economy.jpg?resize=320,320 320w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/AGI-Economy.jpg?resize=600,600 600w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/AGI-Economy.jpg?resize=1000,1000 1000w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/AGI-Economy.jpg?resize=1400,1400 1400w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/AGI-Economy.jpg?resize=50,50 50w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/AGI-Economy.jpg?resize=80,80 80w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/AGI-Economy.jpg?resize=120,120 120w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/AGI-Economy.jpg?resize=200,200 200w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/AGI-Economy.jpg?resize=400,400 400w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/AGI-Economy.jpg?resize=900,900 900w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/AGI-Economy.jpg?resize=1200,1200 1200w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/AGI-Economy.jpg?resize=330,330 330w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/AGI-Economy.jpg?resize=540,540 540w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/AGI-Economy.jpg?resize=850,850 850w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/AGI-Economy.jpg?resize=1800,1800 1800w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/AGI-Economy.jpg?resize=175,175 175w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/AGI-Economy.jpg?resize=275,275 275w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/AGI-Economy.jpg?resize=360,360 360w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/AGI-Economy.jpg?resize=500,500 500w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 3201px) 100vw, 3201px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Capital, labor markets, and policy all point us toward the rapid row:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Capital:<\/strong> Nvidia\u2019s latest quarterly revenue cleared $148\u202fbillion, up 86% year\u2011on\u2011year, and there is still a waiting list for high\u2011end H100 boards. A single frontier model training run already costs roughly $500 million in hardware and power. The <a href=\"https:\/\/technologymagazine.com\/cloud-and-cybersecurity\/who-are-cloud-big-four\">Big Four cloud computing companies<\/a> plus Meta poured roughly $200\u202fbillion into AI\/data center <a href=\"https:\/\/www.lemonde.fr\/en\/pixels\/article\/2024\/07\/14\/after-euphoria-fear-of-bubble-grows-around-generative-ai_6683589_13.html\">capex<\/a> in 2024 alone.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Labor:<\/strong> The leading models solve bar exams, draft contracts, and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/artificial-intelligence\/vibe-coding\">write passable code<\/a>. Employers are testing replacements for workers, not just systems to augment them. Amodei\u2019s forecasts sound aggressive, but early deployment studies are directionally supportive. Standardized tests at big consulting firms show productivity gains in the <a href=\"https:\/\/askrpa.com\/ai-in-consulting-bcg-case-study\">30\u201340% range<\/a> when LLM copilots are switched on.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Policy:<\/strong> Brussels is writing rules for how AI can be used at work, but the European Union\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/artificialintelligenceact.eu\/\">AI Act<\/a> focuses on transparency and liability, not moratoria. In the US, the Trump Administration rescinded all previous AI policies in January 2025. China is accelerating its domestic accelerator stack to get around export bans. Everywhere, regulators want a slice of the upside and are wary of pushing firms offshore. That is a permissive environment by historical standards.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Put those pieces together, and you get rapid adoption. We\u2019re looking at one to five years, not one to five decades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The live question, then, is whether we land in the left or right column \u2014 broad or concentrated distribution of the gains \u2014 and the answer depends on three levers: compute concentration, energy supply, and the emergence of new \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/scholar.colorado.edu\/concern\/reports\/j9602158r\">meta-work<\/a>\u201d that keeps humans complementary to AIs.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-a-grounded-scenario-for-2030\">A grounded scenario for 2030<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Suppose AI adds one percentage point to global productivity annually starting in 2027, as <a href=\"https:\/\/www.goldmansachs.com\/insights\/articles\/ai-may-start-to-boost-us-gdp-in-2027\">Goldman Sachs projects<\/a>. Compound that and the world is ~6% richer by 2030. Call it a $6 trillion bump.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At the same time, entry\u2011level white\u2011collar employment shrinks by perhaps 30%. Some of the displaced exit through retirement. Others get absorbed into the new meta-work or traditional services. In the US, unemployment might peak in the high single digits among actual labor market participants. In parts of continental Europe, it hits the low teens. Wage dispersion might even widen: The incomes of earners in the 90th percentile increase by 15%, the median stays flat, and the bottom quartile decreases.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In such a scenario, international trade will reshuffle. Energy- and chip\u2011rich nations (e.g., the US, Taiwan, and the Gulf states) run surpluses in the sector. Traditional manufacturing exporters, such as Vietnam, see some economic losses as traditional importers start using automation and robotics to make on-shore manufacturing more cost effective. Service exporters (e.g., India, the Philippines, and Anglophone Africa) do well <em>if<\/em> they can rent the models cheaply and sell AI\u2011enhanced tasks abroad.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Meanwhile, inflation comes in two parts. Digital cognition falls toward zero marginal cost, but electricity, land near data centers, and the rare metals in GPUs are still costly. The agglomeration effects of wanting to live where the other geniuses live means cities continue to be the center of economic activity. The Consumer Price Index thus might tell a muddled story.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Left to itself, that bundle of facts lands us in the Oligarchic Boom quadrant of our table: rapid gains, captured by a few, with a political backlash brewing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-what-drives-the-split-between-broad-and-concentrated-gains\">What drives the split between broad and concentrated gains?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Compute concentration<\/strong> is the first determinant.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Training budgets scale super\u2011linearly with capability: more capable AIs cost even more to train than their predecessors. There was a 2,000-fold jump in spend in the five years between GPT-2 to GPT-4, while capability went from \u201cwrites a coherent paragraph\u201d to \u201caces college exams.\u201d And it hasn\u2019t stopped. That\u2019s why OpenAI is spending tens of billions on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/robots-ai\/stargate-supercomputer\">Stargate<\/a>. Unless open source keeps pace, the new \u201crail barons\u201d will be whoever can afford to spend billions training AI. Talent follows the clusters. Meta is already dangling <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theregister.com\/2025\/06\/13\/meta_offers_10m_ai_researcher\/\">eight-figure compensation<\/a> to senior AI engineers, while rescinding offers to entry\u2011level hires. Left unchecked, this dynamic pushes us straight toward Oligarchic Boom.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Energy<\/strong> is the second.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The International Energy Agency expects electricity demand for data centers to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.iea.org\/news\/ai-is-set-to-drive-surging-electricity-demand-from-data-centres-while-offering-the-potential-to-transform-how-the-energy-sector-works\">more than double<\/a> to ~945\u202fTWh \u2014 the current usage of Japan \u2014 by 2030, with AI largely driving the increase. Regions with a cheap supply of clean energy (e.g., Texas for wind, Qu\u00e9bec for hydro, the Gulf Coast for nuclear) attract the clusters and run persistent current account surpluses. If electric grid expansion falls behind, adoption slows and the spoils remain locked in a few power\u2011rich enclaves, leading to Stalled Striation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Human complements<\/strong> come last, and they are more malleable.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>AGI still needs data, goals, and real\u2011world priors it cannot infer from pixels. If AGI eats cognitive tasks, what valuable human tasks are left? The answer is meta\u2011work: feeding, steering, and adjudicating the models. The right analogy is not the assembly line to service work, but agriculture to software: entire categories of work that existed in service to other lines of work will become industries in their own right once the cost curve changes.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That creates fresh roles. We could see model shepherds who curate synthetic fraud datasets for insurers, prompt\u2011pack designers in Nairobi who fine\u2011tune Midjourney outputs, or historians in California labs who flag hallucinated citations. None of these roles are glamorous, but they are all essential, and what they mostly resemble are the proto\u2011IT departments of 1965: clunky and over\u2011specialized, but seeds of much larger sectors. If education systems and gig platforms can scale these complements quickly, gains can diffuse more broadly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-nudging-the-outcome-toward-shared-upswing\">Nudging the outcome toward Shared Upswing<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Economist <a href=\"https:\/\/bigthink.com\/series\/the-big-think-interview\/progress\/\">Tyler Cowen<\/a> frequently emphasizes marginal thinking, asking questions like: \u201cWhat institutional reforms are on the margin of being possible?\u201d In terms of the impact of AI on the economy, three candidates could qualify:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Diffuse ownership of the capital stock.<\/strong> Equity sharing, data\u2011dividend trusts, or sovereign wealth stakes in frontier labs can spread the excess profits from compute. It is not socialism \u2014 it is railroads and telephony redux. If California can mandate film residuals, it can require model residuals.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Speed\u2011focused re\u2011skilling.<\/strong> A compute excise tax of even 0.5% on AI companies could fund lifelong learning accounts for every worker in a G\u20117 economy \u2014 transforming job destruction into task rebundling. <em>Should<\/em> it be done is unclear, but it\u2019s why Altman has been discussing universal basic income from the largesse of the AI companies\u2019 outputs.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Energy\u2011capacity pacts.<\/strong> Match every new hyperscale data center permit to an equivalent amount of low\u2011carbon energy: wind, solar, small modular nuclear, whatever clears. That prevents AI growth from running into a power wall and keeps clusters geographically diversified.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>Challenges could arise. If we get 4% real interest rates or more, it might neuter speculative capex, meaning no new investments in AI infrastructure or reskilling initiatives. A few high\u2011profile failures in AI might well provoke EU\u2011style brakes. Open-source efforts might fall a full generation behind closed labs \u2014 all while compute cost soars.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>None of the steps above would be costless, either, but all three are politically plausible and would move the needle from Oligarchic Boom toward Shared Upswing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-bottom-line\">The bottom line<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Skeptics may ask: \u201cIf AGI does <em>all<\/em> cognitive tasks, what is left for humans?\u201d&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Historically, when the cost of an input collapses, new downstream goods appear. Electricity, for example, gave us aluminium smelting and MRI scanners. Cheap cognition can give us <a href=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/consumer-tech\/khanmigo-ai-tutor\">personalized tutors<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/robots-ai\/alphafold-3\">automated drug design<\/a>, neighborhood\u2011scale business intelligence, and yes, whole markets for evaluating and steering AI itself. These are not sci\u2011fi fantasies \u2014 venture capital is already funding them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The uncomfortable truth is that many traditional jobs will be replaced by AI \u2014 but the emerging truth is that economically valuable complements are already visible. They need scale, norms, and capital, not magic. Whether they arrive in time to prevent the widespread unemployment that Amodei predicts is a management and policy challenge, not a technological one.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Whether you believe Amodei or not, his warnings should not be taken lightly. If what he and many others are saying is even somewhat true, the best-case scenario is an extraordinary disruption to the way we work \u2014 the kind that normally takes decades to unfold \u2014 over the next few years. Entirely new classes of jobs <em>must <\/em>emerge because the alternative is widespread unemployment and economic upheaval.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ultimately, we seem to be headed toward a future where we spend an <a href=\"https:\/\/www.strangeloopcanon.com\/p\/what-would-a-world-with-agi-look\">extraordinary chunk of our economy<\/a> on data centers and AI infrastructure. That investment will then make space for new segments to flourish, but whether that means current industries will become more productive or entirely new sectors will emerge and quickly grow remains to be seen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-pullquote\"><blockquote><p>The correct response is not panic or complacency, but institutional hustle.&nbsp;<\/p><\/blockquote><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The economic die is not fully cast, but its weight is now measurable.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Rapid adoption looks close to inevitable, but the distribution of gains is still very much to be determined. If institutions manage to spread ownership, train complements, and build the necessary electric grid, 2030 could mark the start of a Shared Upswing: a messy but overall positive rerun of the 1990s internet boom with even larger numbers. If they fail, expect an Oligarchic Boom, which will create fertile ground for grievance politics and regulatory whiplash.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Either way, Amodei\u2019s and Altman\u2019s timelines are too short to ignore, and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.oecd.org\/en\/publications\/2023\/07\/oecd-employment-outlook-2023_904bcef3.html\">27% of jobs<\/a> are <em>highly<\/em> automatable. If 50% are automated \u2014 as Amodei warns they will be \u2014 they\u2019ll be replaced by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.uschamber.com\/co\/run\/human-resources\/fractional-hiring\/\">fractional gigs<\/a> mediated by AI platforms instead of payroll departments. Skilled professionals who master AI toolchains could see wage increases. Incomes will go down for the rest.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The correct response is not panic or complacency, but institutional hustle.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In 1997, WIRED\u2019s \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.wired.com\/1997\/07\/longboom\/\">Long Boom<\/a>\u201d envisioned 25 years of prosperity from PCs and networks, but even that bold forecast is a long shout from the double-digit GDP growth and capturing of \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/TzcJlKg2Rc0?feature=shared\">the light cone for all future value in the universe<\/a>\u201d that some now predict will follow in the wake of AI.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As we navigate this transition, we should remember two things. First, every wave of automation has created more work than it destroyed, but only after a painful transition period. Second, the more widely we spread the new tools, the greater the likelihood that happy recursion continues. That is as close to an iron law as economics ever gives us.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>We\u2019d love to hear from you! If you have a comment about this article or if you have a tip for a future Freethink story, please email us at&nbsp;<a href=\"mailto:tips@freethink.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">tips@freethink.com<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The impact of AGI on the economy will be big, it\u2019ll happen fast, and it\u2019ll be disruptive. Here&#8217;s how the disruption could play out.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":25,"featured_media":116313,"template":"","ftm_taxonomy_fields":[46,79],"ftm_taxonomy_challenges":[],"ftm_taxonomy_statuses":[36],"ftm_taxonomy_hidden_tags":[2184],"class_list":["post-116309","ftm_article","type-ftm_article","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","ftm_taxonomy_fields-ai","ftm_taxonomy_fields-economics","ftm_taxonomy_statuses-featured"],"acf":[],"apple_news_notices":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v26.9) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The AGI economy is coming faster than you think<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The impact of AGI on the economy will be big, it\u2019ll happen fast, and it\u2019ll be disruptive. 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