{"id":116162,"date":"2025-06-02T12:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-06-02T16:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/?post_type=ftm_article&#038;p=116162"},"modified":"2025-06-03T18:03:53","modified_gmt":"2025-06-03T22:03:53","slug":"techno-humanist-manifesto-chapter-7-section-1","status":"publish","type":"ftm_article","link":"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/the-material-world\/techno-humanist-manifesto-chapter-7-section-1","title":{"rendered":"Predictions of resource scarcity have a fundamental flaw"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"hidden sm:block md:block relative z-10 f-block f-block--content-series-slider f-block--tighter f-block--full b-css\">\n    <div class=\"f-block__inner\">\n        <div class=\"f-block__content f-block__content--no-grid f-block__content--padded\">\n            <div class=\"py-3 border-t border-b border-gray-20 dark:border-none flex w-full max-w-full justify-items-stretch gap-x-9\">\n                <div class=\"flex-grow-0 flex-shrink-0 w-36 md:w-40\">\n                    <div class=\"eyebrow mb-1 dark:text-gray-400\">\n                        Jason Crawford                    <\/div>\n                                            <div class=\"font-archivo tracking-tight text-2xl md:text-2xl leading-5 md:leading-6 font-extrabold\">\n                            <a class=\"text-black dark:text-white dark:hover:text-white hover:text-black focus:text-black hover:underline-thickness focus:underline-thickness\" href=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/collections\/the-techno-humanist-manifesto\">                            The Techno-Humanist Manifesto                            <\/a>                        <\/div>\n                                        <\/div>\n                <div class=\"relative flex-grow-1 w-full px-8 h-20\">\n                    <!-- navigation buttons -->\n                    <div class=\"swiper-button-prev absolute z-10 left-0 w-7 flex-row flex justify-center items-center top-0 h-full bg-white dark:bg-transparent swiper-button-disabled\">\n                        <div class=\"text-bold transform rotate-180 dark:text-white\">\n                            <?xml version=\"1.0\" encoding=\"UTF-8\"?>\n<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"11\" height=\"16\" viewBox=\"0 0 11 16\" fill=\"none\">\n  <path d=\"M1 1L9.14243 8.2L1 15\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2\"><\/path>\n<\/svg>\n                        <\/div>\n                    <\/div>\n                    <div class=\"swiper-button-next absolute z-10 right-0 w-7 flex-row flex justify-center items-center top-0 h-full bg-white dark:bg-transparent swiper-button-disabled\">\n                        <div class=\"dark:text-white\">\n                            <?xml version=\"1.0\" encoding=\"UTF-8\"?>\n<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"11\" height=\"16\" viewBox=\"0 0 11 16\" fill=\"none\">\n  <path d=\"M1 1L9.14243 8.2L1 15\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2\"><\/path>\n<\/svg>\n                        <\/div>\n                    <\/div>\n                    \n                    <div class=\"relative w-full\">\n                                                    <div class=\"absolute top-0 left-0 overflow-x-hidden w-full max-w-full\">\n                                <script>\n                                if (!window.freethink_scroller_config) {\n                                    window.freethink_scroller_config = [];\n                                }\n                                window.freethink_scroller_config['slider_1'] = {\n                                    slidesPerView: 1,\n                                    spaceBetween: 20,\n                                    breakpoints: {\n                                        768: {\n                                            slidesPerView: 2,\n                                        },\n                                        1024: {\n                                            slidesPerView: 3,\n                                        },\n                                        1300: {\n                                            slidesPerView: 4,\n                                        }\n                                    }\n                                };\n                                <\/script>\n                                \n                                <div class=\"swiper hidden relative max-w-full\" data-js=\"swiper\" id=\"slider_1\" data-swiper-id=\"slider_1\">\n                                    <div class=\"b-css__slider swiper-wrapper relative flex flex-row\">\n                                                                                    <div class=\"block b-css__slide swiper-slide w-72\">\n                                                <div class=\"flex gap-4\">\n                                                    <div class=\"text-bold w-20 flex-shrink-0\">\n                                                        <a href=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/opinion\/techno-humanist-manifesto-chapter-11\">\n                                                            <img decoding=\"async\" width=\"80\" height=\"80\" src=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/The-Progress-Agenda_compressed.jpg?quality=75&amp;w=80&amp;h=80&amp;crop=1\" class=\"attachment-preview_square_xs size-preview_square_xs\" alt=\"Abstract collage with arrows, a person skating, a woman using a microscope, scientific illustrations, and the text &quot;The Progress Agenda 11&quot; on a grid background.\" sizes=\"80px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/The-Progress-Agenda_compressed.jpg?resize=50,50 50w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/The-Progress-Agenda_compressed.jpg?resize=80,80 80w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/The-Progress-Agenda_compressed.jpg?resize=120,120 120w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/The-Progress-Agenda_compressed.jpg?resize=200,200 200w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/The-Progress-Agenda_compressed.jpg?resize=400,400 400w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/The-Progress-Agenda_compressed.jpg?resize=600,600 600w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/The-Progress-Agenda_compressed.jpg?resize=900,900 900w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/The-Progress-Agenda_compressed.jpg?resize=1200,1200 1200w\" \/>                                                        <\/a>\n                                                    <\/div>\n                                                    <div class=\"flex-grow-1\">\n                                                        <a class=\"font-archivo text-black dark:text-white dark:hover:text-white inline-block hover:text-black focus:text-black text-sm tracking-tight leading-4 font-bold line-clamp-5\" href=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/opinion\/techno-humanist-manifesto-chapter-11\">\n                                                            A playbook for the next century of progress                                                        <\/a>\n                                                    <\/div>\n                                                <\/div>\n                                            <\/div>\n                                                                                        <div class=\"block b-css__slide swiper-slide w-72\">\n                                                <div class=\"flex gap-4\">\n                                                    <div class=\"text-bold w-20 flex-shrink-0\">\n                                                        <a href=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/opinion\/techno-humanist-manifesto-chapter-10\">\n                                                            <img decoding=\"async\" width=\"80\" height=\"80\" src=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/the-grand-project_compressed.jpg?quality=75&amp;w=80&amp;h=80&amp;crop=1\" class=\"attachment-preview_square_xs size-preview_square_xs\" alt=\"Collage featuring a knight on horseback, microscope, Golden Gate Bridge, geometric shapes, and the text &quot;The 10 Grand Project&quot; in bold red letters.\" sizes=\"80px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/the-grand-project_compressed.jpg?resize=50,50 50w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/the-grand-project_compressed.jpg?resize=80,80 80w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/the-grand-project_compressed.jpg?resize=120,120 120w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/the-grand-project_compressed.jpg?resize=200,200 200w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/the-grand-project_compressed.jpg?resize=400,400 400w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/the-grand-project_compressed.jpg?resize=600,600 600w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/the-grand-project_compressed.jpg?resize=900,900 900w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/the-grand-project_compressed.jpg?resize=1200,1200 1200w\" \/>                                                        <\/a>\n                                                    <\/div>\n                                                    <div class=\"flex-grow-1\">\n                                                        <a class=\"font-archivo text-black dark:text-white dark:hover:text-white inline-block hover:text-black focus:text-black text-sm tracking-tight leading-4 font-bold line-clamp-5\" href=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/opinion\/techno-humanist-manifesto-chapter-10\">\n                                                            Progress is a grand project for humanity                                                        <\/a>\n                                                    <\/div>\n                                                <\/div>\n                                            <\/div>\n                                                                                        <div class=\"block b-css__slide swiper-slide w-72\">\n                                                <div class=\"flex gap-4\">\n                                                    <div class=\"text-bold w-20 flex-shrink-0\">\n                                                        <a href=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/the-material-world\/techno-humanist-manifesto-chapter-9-section-2\">\n                                                            <img decoding=\"async\" width=\"80\" height=\"80\" src=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/9.2-the-spirit-we-lost_pt-2.jpg?quality=75&amp;w=80&amp;h=80&amp;crop=1\" class=\"attachment-preview_square_xs size-preview_square_xs\" alt=\"A collage with vintage industrial images, a map, a car, a mushroom cloud, and the text \u201cThe Spirit We Lost\u201d alongside the number 9 in the top right corner.\" sizes=\"80px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/9.2-the-spirit-we-lost_pt-2.jpg?resize=50,50 50w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/9.2-the-spirit-we-lost_pt-2.jpg?resize=80,80 80w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/9.2-the-spirit-we-lost_pt-2.jpg?resize=120,120 120w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/9.2-the-spirit-we-lost_pt-2.jpg?resize=200,200 200w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/9.2-the-spirit-we-lost_pt-2.jpg?resize=400,400 400w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/9.2-the-spirit-we-lost_pt-2.jpg?resize=600,600 600w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/9.2-the-spirit-we-lost_pt-2.jpg?resize=900,900 900w\" \/>                                                        <\/a>\n                                                    <\/div>\n                                                    <div class=\"flex-grow-1\">\n                                                        <a class=\"font-archivo text-black dark:text-white dark:hover:text-white inline-block hover:text-black focus:text-black text-sm tracking-tight leading-4 font-bold line-clamp-5\" href=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/the-material-world\/techno-humanist-manifesto-chapter-9-section-2\">\n                                                            How technocracy made us doubt progress                                                        <\/a>\n                                                    <\/div>\n                                                <\/div>\n                                            <\/div>\n                                                                                        <div class=\"block b-css__slide swiper-slide w-72\">\n                                                <div class=\"flex gap-4\">\n                                                    <div class=\"text-bold w-20 flex-shrink-0\">\n                                                        <a href=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/the-material-world\/techno-humanist-manifesto-chapter-9-section-1\">\n                                                            <img decoding=\"async\" width=\"80\" height=\"80\" src=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/the-spirit-we-lost_compressed.png?quality=75&amp;w=80&amp;h=80&amp;crop=1\" class=\"attachment-preview_square_xs size-preview_square_xs\" alt=\"Collage of vintage technology images, including a flying car, machinery, and early airplane, over a grid background with the text &quot;The Spirit We Lost&quot; and the number 9.\" sizes=\"80px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/the-spirit-we-lost_compressed.png?resize=50,50 50w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/the-spirit-we-lost_compressed.png?resize=80,80 80w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/the-spirit-we-lost_compressed.png?resize=120,120 120w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/the-spirit-we-lost_compressed.png?resize=200,200 200w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/the-spirit-we-lost_compressed.png?resize=400,400 400w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/the-spirit-we-lost_compressed.png?resize=600,600 600w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/the-spirit-we-lost_compressed.png?resize=900,900 900w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/the-spirit-we-lost_compressed.png?resize=1200,1200 1200w\" \/>                                                        <\/a>\n                                                    <\/div>\n                                                    <div class=\"flex-grow-1\">\n                                                        <a class=\"font-archivo text-black dark:text-white dark:hover:text-white inline-block hover:text-black focus:text-black text-sm tracking-tight leading-4 font-bold line-clamp-5\" href=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/the-material-world\/techno-humanist-manifesto-chapter-9-section-1\">\n                                                            We used to celebrate science and innovation                                                        <\/a>\n                                                    <\/div>\n                                                <\/div>\n                                            <\/div>\n                                                                                        <div class=\"block b-css__slide swiper-slide w-72\">\n                                                <div class=\"flex gap-4\">\n                                                    <div class=\"text-bold w-20 flex-shrink-0\">\n                                                        <a href=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/opinion\/techno-humanist-manifesto-chapter-8-section-2\">\n                                                            <img decoding=\"async\" width=\"80\" height=\"80\" src=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/unlimited-horizon_pt-2.jpg?quality=75&amp;w=80&amp;h=80&amp;crop=1\" class=\"attachment-preview_square_xs size-preview_square_xs\" alt=\"A collage with a DNA strand, a virus, a tomato, an airplane, an autonomous car, and the text &quot;The Unlimited Horizon 8&quot; on a grid background.\" sizes=\"80px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/unlimited-horizon_pt-2.jpg?resize=50,50 50w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/unlimited-horizon_pt-2.jpg?resize=80,80 80w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/unlimited-horizon_pt-2.jpg?resize=120,120 120w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/unlimited-horizon_pt-2.jpg?resize=200,200 200w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/unlimited-horizon_pt-2.jpg?resize=400,400 400w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/unlimited-horizon_pt-2.jpg?resize=600,600 600w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/unlimited-horizon_pt-2.jpg?resize=900,900 900w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/unlimited-horizon_pt-2.jpg?resize=1200,1200 1200w\" \/>                                                        <\/a>\n                                                    <\/div>\n                                                    <div class=\"flex-grow-1\">\n                                                        <a class=\"font-archivo text-black dark:text-white dark:hover:text-white inline-block hover:text-black focus:text-black text-sm tracking-tight leading-4 font-bold line-clamp-5\" href=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/opinion\/techno-humanist-manifesto-chapter-8-section-2\">\n                                                            What if humans mastered every aspect of nature?                                                        <\/a>\n                                                    <\/div>\n                                                <\/div>\n                                            <\/div>\n                                                                                        <div class=\"block b-css__slide swiper-slide w-72\">\n                                                <div class=\"flex gap-4\">\n                                                    <div class=\"text-bold w-20 flex-shrink-0\">\n                                                        <a href=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/artificial-intelligence\/techno-humanist-manifesto-chapter-8-section-1\">\n                                                            <img decoding=\"async\" width=\"80\" height=\"80\" src=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/THM-8.1-lead-the-unlimited-horizon2.jpg?quality=75&amp;w=80&amp;h=80&amp;crop=1\" class=\"attachment-preview_square_xs size-preview_square_xs\" alt=\"Abstract geometric design with red and black grid patterns, a central white rectangle displaying the text &quot;The Unlimited Horizon,&quot; and the number 8 in the top right corner.\" sizes=\"80px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/THM-8.1-lead-the-unlimited-horizon2.jpg?resize=50,50 50w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/THM-8.1-lead-the-unlimited-horizon2.jpg?resize=80,80 80w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/THM-8.1-lead-the-unlimited-horizon2.jpg?resize=120,120 120w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/THM-8.1-lead-the-unlimited-horizon2.jpg?resize=200,200 200w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/THM-8.1-lead-the-unlimited-horizon2.jpg?resize=400,400 400w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/THM-8.1-lead-the-unlimited-horizon2.jpg?resize=600,600 600w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/THM-8.1-lead-the-unlimited-horizon2.jpg?resize=900,900 900w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/THM-8.1-lead-the-unlimited-horizon2.jpg?resize=1200,1200 1200w\" \/>                                                        <\/a>\n                                                    <\/div>\n                                                    <div class=\"flex-grow-1\">\n                                                        <a class=\"font-archivo text-black dark:text-white dark:hover:text-white inline-block hover:text-black focus:text-black text-sm tracking-tight leading-4 font-bold line-clamp-5\" href=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/artificial-intelligence\/techno-humanist-manifesto-chapter-8-section-1\">\n                                                            AI can dramatically expand human agency                                                        <\/a>\n                                                    <\/div>\n                                                <\/div>\n                                            <\/div>\n                                                                                        <div class=\"block b-css__slide swiper-slide w-72\">\n                                                <div class=\"flex gap-4\">\n                                                    <div class=\"text-bold w-20 flex-shrink-0\">\n                                                        <a href=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/the-material-world\/techno-humanist-manifesto-chapter-7-section-3\">\n                                                            <img decoding=\"async\" width=\"80\" height=\"80\" src=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/the-problem-solving-animal-pt3.jpg?quality=75&amp;w=80&amp;h=80&amp;crop=1\" class=\"attachment-preview_square_xs size-preview_square_xs\" alt=\"A collage featuring cows, a molecule model, charts, machinery, and the text &quot;The Problem-Solving Animal&quot; with the number 7 on a grid background.\" sizes=\"80px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/the-problem-solving-animal-pt3.jpg?resize=50,50 50w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/the-problem-solving-animal-pt3.jpg?resize=80,80 80w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/the-problem-solving-animal-pt3.jpg?resize=120,120 120w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/the-problem-solving-animal-pt3.jpg?resize=200,200 200w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/the-problem-solving-animal-pt3.jpg?resize=400,400 400w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/the-problem-solving-animal-pt3.jpg?resize=600,600 600w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/the-problem-solving-animal-pt3.jpg?resize=900,900 900w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/the-problem-solving-animal-pt3.jpg?resize=1200,1200 1200w\" \/>                                                        <\/a>\n                                                    <\/div>\n                                                    <div class=\"flex-grow-1\">\n                                                        <a class=\"font-archivo text-black dark:text-white dark:hover:text-white inline-block hover:text-black focus:text-black text-sm tracking-tight leading-4 font-bold line-clamp-5\" href=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/the-material-world\/techno-humanist-manifesto-chapter-7-section-3\">\n                                                            Problem-solving is fundamental to human nature                                                        <\/a>\n                                                    <\/div>\n                                                <\/div>\n                                            <\/div>\n                                                                                        <div class=\"block b-css__slide swiper-slide w-72\">\n                                                <div class=\"flex gap-4\">\n                                                    <div class=\"text-bold w-20 flex-shrink-0\">\n                                                        <a href=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/the-material-world\/techno-humanist-manifesto-chapter-7-section-2\">\n                                                            <img decoding=\"async\" width=\"80\" height=\"80\" src=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/LEAD-the-problem-solving-animal-pt2.jpg?quality=75&amp;w=80&amp;h=80&amp;crop=1\" class=\"attachment-preview_square_xs size-preview_square_xs\" alt=\"A collage of scientific and technological images surrounds the text &quot;The Problem-Solving Animal&quot; and the number 7 on a grid-patterned background.\" sizes=\"80px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/LEAD-the-problem-solving-animal-pt2.jpg?resize=50,50 50w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/LEAD-the-problem-solving-animal-pt2.jpg?resize=80,80 80w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/LEAD-the-problem-solving-animal-pt2.jpg?resize=120,120 120w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/LEAD-the-problem-solving-animal-pt2.jpg?resize=200,200 200w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/LEAD-the-problem-solving-animal-pt2.jpg?resize=400,400 400w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/LEAD-the-problem-solving-animal-pt2.jpg?resize=600,600 600w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/LEAD-the-problem-solving-animal-pt2.jpg?resize=900,900 900w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/LEAD-the-problem-solving-animal-pt2.jpg?resize=1200,1200 1200w\" \/>                                                        <\/a>\n                                                    <\/div>\n                                                    <div class=\"flex-grow-1\">\n                                                        <a class=\"font-archivo text-black dark:text-white dark:hover:text-white inline-block hover:text-black focus:text-black text-sm tracking-tight leading-4 font-bold line-clamp-5\" href=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/the-material-world\/techno-humanist-manifesto-chapter-7-section-2\">\n                                                            It\u2019s far too early to call &#8220;peak ideas&#8221;                                                        <\/a>\n                                                    <\/div>\n                                                <\/div>\n                                            <\/div>\n                                                                                        <div class=\"block b-css__slide swiper-slide w-72\">\n                                                <div class=\"flex gap-4\">\n                                                    <div class=\"text-bold w-20 flex-shrink-0\">\n                                                        <a href=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/the-material-world\/techno-humanist-manifesto-chapter-6-section-2\">\n                                                            <img decoding=\"async\" width=\"80\" height=\"80\" src=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/the-flywheel_pt2-thumb.jpg?quality=75&amp;w=80&amp;h=80&amp;crop=1\" class=\"attachment-preview_square_xs size-preview_square_xs\" alt=\"A collage featuring a hand using a smartphone, two men speaking into microphones, a vintage desktop computer, and a graph, with the text &quot;The Flywheel&quot; in the center.\" sizes=\"80px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/the-flywheel_pt2-thumb.jpg?resize=50,50 50w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/the-flywheel_pt2-thumb.jpg?resize=80,80 80w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/the-flywheel_pt2-thumb.jpg?resize=120,120 120w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/the-flywheel_pt2-thumb.jpg?resize=200,200 200w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/the-flywheel_pt2-thumb.jpg?resize=400,400 400w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/the-flywheel_pt2-thumb.jpg?resize=600,600 600w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/the-flywheel_pt2-thumb.jpg?resize=900,900 900w\" \/>                                                        <\/a>\n                                                    <\/div>\n                                                    <div class=\"flex-grow-1\">\n                                                        <a class=\"font-archivo text-black dark:text-white dark:hover:text-white inline-block hover:text-black focus:text-black text-sm tracking-tight leading-4 font-bold line-clamp-5\" href=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/the-material-world\/techno-humanist-manifesto-chapter-6-section-2\">\n                                                            If progress has stalled, we need to know why                                                        <\/a>\n                                                    <\/div>\n                                                <\/div>\n                                            <\/div>\n                                                                                        <div class=\"block b-css__slide swiper-slide w-72\">\n                                                <div class=\"flex gap-4\">\n                                                    <div class=\"text-bold w-20 flex-shrink-0\">\n                                                        <a href=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/the-material-world\/techno-humanist-manifesto-chapter-6\">\n                                                            <img decoding=\"async\" width=\"80\" height=\"80\" src=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/THM-chp6_lead_the-flywheel-1.jpg?quality=75&amp;w=80&amp;h=80&amp;crop=1\" class=\"attachment-preview_square_xs size-preview_square_xs\" alt=\"Collage with stone tools, a flywheel, a vintage train, and a graph on a grid background; text reads \u201cThe Flywheel\u201d with the number 6 in the top right corner.\" sizes=\"80px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/THM-chp6_lead_the-flywheel-1.jpg?resize=50,50 50w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/THM-chp6_lead_the-flywheel-1.jpg?resize=80,80 80w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/THM-chp6_lead_the-flywheel-1.jpg?resize=120,120 120w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/THM-chp6_lead_the-flywheel-1.jpg?resize=200,200 200w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/THM-chp6_lead_the-flywheel-1.jpg?resize=400,400 400w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/THM-chp6_lead_the-flywheel-1.jpg?resize=600,600 600w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/THM-chp6_lead_the-flywheel-1.jpg?resize=900,900 900w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/THM-chp6_lead_the-flywheel-1.jpg?resize=1200,1200 1200w\" \/>                                                        <\/a>\n                                                    <\/div>\n                                                    <div class=\"flex-grow-1\">\n                                                        <a class=\"font-archivo text-black dark:text-white dark:hover:text-white inline-block hover:text-black focus:text-black text-sm tracking-tight leading-4 font-bold line-clamp-5\" href=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/the-material-world\/techno-humanist-manifesto-chapter-6\">\n                                                            Why progress was so slow, for so long                                                        <\/a>\n                                                    <\/div>\n                                                <\/div>\n                                            <\/div>\n                                                                                        <div class=\"block b-css__slide swiper-slide w-72\">\n                                                <div class=\"flex gap-4\">\n                                                    <div class=\"text-bold w-20 flex-shrink-0\">\n                                                        <a href=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/energy\/techno-humanist-manifesto-chapter-5-section-3\">\n                                                            <img decoding=\"async\" width=\"80\" height=\"80\" src=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/LEAD-IMAGE_THM-5.3-solutionism-1.jpg?quality=75&amp;w=80&amp;h=80&amp;crop=1\" class=\"attachment-preview_square_xs size-preview_square_xs\" alt=\"Collage with house roof solar panels, abstract spheres, red planets, forest, and industrial smoke, centered text: &quot;Solutionism,&quot; with a checkered background.\" sizes=\"80px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/LEAD-IMAGE_THM-5.3-solutionism-1.jpg?resize=50,50 50w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/LEAD-IMAGE_THM-5.3-solutionism-1.jpg?resize=80,80 80w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/LEAD-IMAGE_THM-5.3-solutionism-1.jpg?resize=120,120 120w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/LEAD-IMAGE_THM-5.3-solutionism-1.jpg?resize=200,200 200w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/LEAD-IMAGE_THM-5.3-solutionism-1.jpg?resize=400,400 400w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/LEAD-IMAGE_THM-5.3-solutionism-1.jpg?resize=600,600 600w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/LEAD-IMAGE_THM-5.3-solutionism-1.jpg?resize=900,900 900w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/LEAD-IMAGE_THM-5.3-solutionism-1.jpg?resize=1200,1200 1200w\" \/>                                                        <\/a>\n                                                    <\/div>\n                                                    <div class=\"flex-grow-1\">\n                                                        <a class=\"font-archivo text-black dark:text-white dark:hover:text-white inline-block hover:text-black focus:text-black text-sm tracking-tight leading-4 font-bold line-clamp-5\" href=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/energy\/techno-humanist-manifesto-chapter-5-section-3\">\n                                                            &#8220;Stopping climate change&#8221; is the wrong goal                                                        <\/a>\n                                                    <\/div>\n                                                <\/div>\n                                            <\/div>\n                                                                                        <div class=\"block b-css__slide swiper-slide w-72\">\n                                                <div class=\"flex gap-4\">\n                                                    <div class=\"text-bold w-20 flex-shrink-0\">\n                                                        <a href=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/the-material-world\/techno-humanist-manifesto-chapter-5-section-2\">\n                                                            <img decoding=\"async\" width=\"80\" height=\"80\" src=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/IMG_4331.png?quality=75&amp;w=80&amp;h=80&amp;crop=1\" class=\"attachment-preview_square_xs size-preview_square_xs\" alt=\"Collage with &quot;Solutionism&quot; text, vintage portraits, smoggy cityscape, glove holding a white mouse, and the number 5, featuring orange and beige geometric patterns.\" sizes=\"80px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/IMG_4331.png?resize=50,50 50w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/IMG_4331.png?resize=80,80 80w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/IMG_4331.png?resize=120,120 120w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/IMG_4331.png?resize=200,200 200w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/IMG_4331.png?resize=400,400 400w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/IMG_4331.png?resize=600,600 600w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/IMG_4331.png?resize=900,900 900w\" \/>                                                        <\/a>\n                                                    <\/div>\n                                                    <div class=\"flex-grow-1\">\n                                                        <a class=\"font-archivo text-black dark:text-white dark:hover:text-white inline-block hover:text-black focus:text-black text-sm tracking-tight leading-4 font-bold line-clamp-5\" href=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/the-material-world\/techno-humanist-manifesto-chapter-5-section-2\">\n                                                            Progress happens because solutions create new problems to solve                                                        <\/a>\n                                                    <\/div>\n                                                <\/div>\n                                            <\/div>\n                                                                                        <div class=\"block b-css__slide swiper-slide w-72\">\n                                                <div class=\"flex gap-4\">\n                                                    <div class=\"text-bold w-20 flex-shrink-0\">\n                                                        <a href=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/the-material-world\/techno-humanist-manifesto-chapter-5-section-1\">\n                                                            <img decoding=\"async\" width=\"80\" height=\"80\" src=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/solutionism-header.jpg?quality=75&amp;w=80&amp;h=80&amp;crop=1\" class=\"attachment-preview_square_xs size-preview_square_xs\" alt=\"A collage featuring scientific diagrams, a man&#039;s face with a mustache, wheat, and industrial imagery, overlaid with the word &quot;Solutionism&quot; and the number 5.\" sizes=\"80px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/solutionism-header.jpg?resize=50,50 50w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/solutionism-header.jpg?resize=80,80 80w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/solutionism-header.jpg?resize=120,120 120w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/solutionism-header.jpg?resize=200,200 200w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/solutionism-header.jpg?resize=400,400 400w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/solutionism-header.jpg?resize=600,600 600w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/solutionism-header.jpg?resize=900,900 900w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/solutionism-header.jpg?resize=1200,1200 1200w\" \/>                                                        <\/a>\n                                                    <\/div>\n                                                    <div class=\"flex-grow-1\">\n                                                        <a class=\"font-archivo text-black dark:text-white dark:hover:text-white inline-block hover:text-black focus:text-black text-sm tracking-tight leading-4 font-bold line-clamp-5\" href=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/the-material-world\/techno-humanist-manifesto-chapter-5-section-1\">\n                                                            Blind optimism is not a cure for blind pessimism                                                        <\/a>\n                                                    <\/div>\n                                                <\/div>\n                                            <\/div>\n                                                                                        <div class=\"block b-css__slide swiper-slide w-72\">\n                                                <div class=\"flex gap-4\">\n                                                    <div class=\"text-bold w-20 flex-shrink-0\">\n                                                        <a href=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/society\/techno-humanist-manifesto-chapter-4-section-2\">\n                                                            <img decoding=\"async\" width=\"80\" height=\"80\" src=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/9-Reclaim-Meaning-Header-Image-For-Article.png?quality=75&amp;w=80&amp;h=80&amp;crop=1\" class=\"attachment-preview_square_xs size-preview_square_xs\" alt=\"Collage featuring hands holding a leaf, overlapping hands, and the text &quot;Reclaim Meaning&quot; with a grid background.\" sizes=\"80px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/9-Reclaim-Meaning-Header-Image-For-Article.png?resize=50,50 50w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/9-Reclaim-Meaning-Header-Image-For-Article.png?resize=80,80 80w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/9-Reclaim-Meaning-Header-Image-For-Article.png?resize=120,120 120w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/9-Reclaim-Meaning-Header-Image-For-Article.png?resize=200,200 200w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/9-Reclaim-Meaning-Header-Image-For-Article.png?resize=400,400 400w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/9-Reclaim-Meaning-Header-Image-For-Article.png?resize=600,600 600w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/9-Reclaim-Meaning-Header-Image-For-Article.png?resize=900,900 900w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/9-Reclaim-Meaning-Header-Image-For-Article.png?resize=1200,1200 1200w\" \/>                                                        <\/a>\n                                                    <\/div>\n                                                    <div class=\"flex-grow-1\">\n                                                        <a class=\"font-archivo text-black dark:text-white dark:hover:text-white inline-block hover:text-black focus:text-black text-sm tracking-tight leading-4 font-bold line-clamp-5\" href=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/society\/techno-humanist-manifesto-chapter-4-section-2\">\n                                                            How to reclaim meaning in a changing world                                                        <\/a>\n                                                    <\/div>\n                                                <\/div>\n                                            <\/div>\n                                                                                <\/div>\n                                <\/div>\n                            <\/div>\n                                                <\/div>\n                <\/div>\n            <\/div>\n        <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"f-block f-block--feature-content-header f-block--tighter b-fch f-block--wide\">\n    <div class=\"f-block__inner\">\n        <div class=\"f-block__content f-block__content--no-grid\">\n                            <div class=\"container px-5 mx-auto gap-x-5 sm:px-7 md:px-10 ftm-grid sm:gap-x-10 md:gap-x-14 lg:mt-8 mb-6 xl:mb-8\">\n                    <div class=\"order-1 col-span-8 lg:col-span-6\">\n                                                <h1 class=\"mb-4 h1 sm:pr-8 md:pr-12 xl:pr-16\">Predictions of resource scarcity have a fundamental flaw<\/h1>                        <h2 class=\"mb-6 h5 sm:pr-8 md:pr-12 xl:pr-16 xl:mb-0\">It\u2019s not depletion we should fear \u2014 it\u2019s stagnation.<\/h2>\n                        <div class=\"mt-3 xl:hidden\">\n                            <div class=\"meta mb-4\">\n\t<div class=\"meta__byline\"><span class=\"cover-text\">By <a href=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/people\/jason-crawford\" class=\"font-bold\">Jason Crawford<\/a><\/span><\/div><div class=\"meta__date meta__date--published\"><time datetime=\"2025-06-02T12:00:00-04:00\"><span class=\"cover-text\">June 2, 2025<\/span><\/time><\/div><\/div>\n                        <\/div>\n                        \n                    <\/div>\n\n                    <div class=\"order-2 col-span-8 lg:col-span-4 -mx-5 sm:-mx-7 md:-mx-10 lg:mx-0\">\n                                                    <figure class=\"banner\">\n                                            <style>\n                                .banner__img2 {\n                    width: 100%;\n                    padding-top: 56.25%;\n                    position: relative;\n                }\n\n                .banner__img2 img {\n                    position: absolute;\n                    width: 100%;\n                    top: 0;\n                    left: 0;\n                    bottom: 0;\n                    right: 0;\n                }\n                  \n            <\/style>\n                                        <div class=\"w-full overflow-hidden banner__img2\">\n                                    <img decoding=\"async\" width=\"330\" height=\"186\" src=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/the-problem-solving-animal_compressed.jpg?quality=75&amp;w=330\" class=\"exclude-lazy\" alt=\"A graphic featuring industrial machinery, a historic portrait, Earth, and the text &quot;The Problem-Solving Animal 7&quot; on a grid background in orange and beige tones.\" sizes=\"(min-width: 1366px) 488px, (min-width: 834px) calc(33vw - 40px), calc(100vw - 40px)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/the-problem-solving-animal_compressed.jpg 3200w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/the-problem-solving-animal_compressed.jpg?resize=768,432 768w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/the-problem-solving-animal_compressed.jpg?resize=1536,864 1536w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/the-problem-solving-animal_compressed.jpg?resize=2048,1152 2048w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/the-problem-solving-animal_compressed.jpg?resize=320,180 320w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/the-problem-solving-animal_compressed.jpg?resize=600,338 600w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/the-problem-solving-animal_compressed.jpg?resize=1000,563 1000w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/the-problem-solving-animal_compressed.jpg?resize=1400,788 1400w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/the-problem-solving-animal_compressed.jpg?resize=213,120 213w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/the-problem-solving-animal_compressed.jpg?resize=355,200 355w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/the-problem-solving-animal_compressed.jpg?resize=533,300 533w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/the-problem-solving-animal_compressed.jpg?resize=711,400 711w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/the-problem-solving-animal_compressed.jpg?resize=1067,600 1067w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/the-problem-solving-animal_compressed.jpg?resize=330,186 330w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/the-problem-solving-animal_compressed.jpg?resize=540,304 540w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/the-problem-solving-animal_compressed.jpg?resize=850,478 850w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/the-problem-solving-animal_compressed.jpg?resize=1800,1013 1800w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/the-problem-solving-animal_compressed.jpg?resize=175,98 175w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/the-problem-solving-animal_compressed.jpg?resize=275,155 275w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/the-problem-solving-animal_compressed.jpg?resize=400,225 400w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/the-problem-solving-animal_compressed.jpg?resize=360,203 360w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/the-problem-solving-animal_compressed.jpg?resize=500,281 500w\" \/>                                <\/div>\n                                                            <\/figure>\n                                            <\/div>\n                <\/div>\n                \n                            <div class=\"container px-5 mx-auto sm:px-7 md:px-10 gap-9 hidden xl:grid xgrid-cols-4 xsm:grid-cols-6 xmd:grid-cols-8 lg:grid-cols-10\">\n                    <div class=\"col-span-2 order-4 relative h-0\">\n                        <div class=\"meta mb-4\">\n\t<div class=\"meta__byline\"><span class=\"cover-text\">By <a href=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/people\/jason-crawford\" class=\"font-bold\">Jason Crawford<\/a><\/span><\/div><div class=\"meta__date meta__date--published\"><time datetime=\"2025-06-02T12:00:00-04:00\"><span class=\"cover-text\">June 2, 2025<\/span><\/time><\/div><\/div>\n                    <\/div>\n                <\/div>\n                \n                \n        <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<div class=\"f-block f-block--tighter f-block--classification-sidebar\"> \n    <div class=\"hidden md:block left-full ml-20 w-40 absolute\">\n        <div class=\"line-l line-l--medium\">\n                <div class=\"related-item mb-4\">\n        <div class=\"related-item__header\">Fields<\/div>\n        <div class=\"related-item__content\">\n            <div class=\"related-item__item\"><a href=\"\/topics\/economics\" class=\"related-item__item-link\">Economics<\/a><\/div><div class=\"related-item__item\"><a href=\"\/topics\/history\" class=\"related-item__item-link\">History<\/a><\/div>        <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n    \n<div class=\"related-item mb-4\">\n    <div class=\"related-item__header\">Share<\/div>\n    <div class=\"related-item__content\">\n            <ul class=\"share\" data-js=\"js-share\">\n        <li class=\"share__li share__li--link\">\n            <button class=\"share__link\" data-clipboard-text=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/the-material-world\/techno-humanist-manifesto-chapter-7-section-1\" data-js=\"share-this-link\">\n            <?xml version=\"1.0\" encoding=\"UTF-8\"?>\n<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"13.154\" height=\"13.154\" viewBox=\"0 0 13.154 13.154\" fill=\"#101010\">\n  <g id=\"Group_11619\" data-name=\"Group 11619\" transform=\"translate(0)\">\n    <g id=\"Group_10890\" data-name=\"Group 10890\" transform=\"translate(4.423 0)\">\n      <g id=\"Group_10889\" data-name=\"Group 10889\" transform=\"translate(0 0)\">\n        <path id=\"Path_10150\" data-name=\"Path 10150\" d=\"M179.987.9a3.083,3.083,0,0,0-4.36,0L173.051,3.48a3.112,3.112,0,0,0,0,4.36,2.934,2.934,0,0,0,.62.47l.47-.47a1.059,1.059,0,0,0,.194-.929,1.486,1.486,0,0,1-.194-.161,1.558,1.558,0,0,1,0-2.18l2.577-2.577a1.542,1.542,0,1,1,2.18,2.18l-1.7,1.7a4.437,4.437,0,0,1,.193,1.983c.007-.007.016-.012.024-.019l2.577-2.577A3.083,3.083,0,0,0,179.987.9Z\" transform=\"translate(-172.159 0)\"><\/path>\n      <\/g>\n    <\/g>\n    <g id=\"Group_10892\" data-name=\"Group 10892\" transform=\"translate(0 4.644)\">\n      <g id=\"Group_10891\" data-name=\"Group 10891\">\n        <path id=\"Path_10151\" data-name=\"Path 10151\" d=\"M8.04,181.246a2.934,2.934,0,0,0-.62-.47l-.47.47a1.059,1.059,0,0,0-.194.929,1.491,1.491,0,0,1,.194.161,1.558,1.558,0,0,1,0,2.18l-2.776,2.776a1.541,1.541,0,0,1-2.18-2.18l1.9-1.9a4.437,4.437,0,0,1-.193-1.983c-.007.007-.016.012-.024.019L.9,184.023a3.083,3.083,0,1,0,4.36,4.36l2.776-2.776A3.11,3.11,0,0,0,8.04,181.246Z\" transform=\"translate(0 -180.776)\"><\/path>\n      <\/g>\n    <\/g>\n  <\/g>\n<\/svg>\n                <span class=\"sr-only\">Copy a link to the article entitled Predictions of resource scarcity have a fundamental flaw<\/span>\n            <\/button>\n        <\/li>\n        <li class=\"share__li share__li--twitter\">\n            <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?url=https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/the-material-world\/techno-humanist-manifesto-chapter-7-section-1&#038;text=Predictions%20of%20resource%20scarcity%20have%20a%20fundamental%20flaw\" rel=\"noopener\" class=\"share__link share__link--twitter\" target=\"_blank\">\n            <?xml version=\"1.0\" encoding=\"UTF-8\"?>\n<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"32\" height=\"32\" viewBox=\"0 0 32 32\">\n  <path d=\"M24.8392 3H29.2861L19.571 14.0133L31 29H22.0512L15.0421 19.9107L7.0222 29H2.57266L12.9639 17.22L2 3H11.176L17.5116 11.308L24.8392 3ZM23.2785 26.36H25.7426L9.83711 5.50133H7.19293L23.2785 26.36Z\"><\/path>\n<\/svg>\n                <div class=\"sr-only\">\n                    Share Predictions of resource scarcity have a fundamental flaw on Twitter (X)                <\/div>\n            <\/a>\n        <\/li>\n        <li class=\"share__li share__li--fb\">\n            <a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer\/sharer.php?u=https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/the-material-world\/techno-humanist-manifesto-chapter-7-section-1\" class=\"share__link share__link--facebook\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\n            <?xml version=\"1.0\" encoding=\"UTF-8\"?>\n<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" height=\"32\" viewBox=\"0 0 32 32\" width=\"32\">\n  <path d=\"m19 6h5v-6h-5c-3.86 0-7 3.14-7 7v3h-4v6h4v16h6v-16h5l1-6h-6v-3c0-.542.458-1 1-1z\"><\/path>\n<\/svg>\n                <div class=\"sr-only\">\n                    Share Predictions of resource scarcity have a fundamental flaw on Facebook                <\/div>\n            <\/a>\n        <\/li>\n    <\/ul>\n        <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n        <\/div>\n    <\/div>    \n<\/div>\n\n\n\n\n<p><em>The following is Chapter 7, Section 1, from the book\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/newsletter.rootsofprogress.org\/p\/announcing-the-techno-humanist-manifesto\">The Techno-Humanist Manifesto<\/a>\u00a0by Jason Crawford, Founder of the Roots of Progress Institute. The entirety of the book will be published on Freethink, one week at a time. For more from Jason, subscribe to his Substack\u00a0below<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"f-block f-block--inline-newsletter-prompt f-block--tighter b-inp mb-8\">\n    <div class=\"f-block__inner\">\n        <div class=\"bg-gray-100 dark:bg-gray-800 text-black dark:text-white p-5 lg:p-6 xl:p-7 2xl:p-8\">\n            <div class=\"mb-3.5\">\n                <div class=\"font-archivo text-base font-bold leading-tight md:text-base lg:text-lg xl:text-xl md:leading-tight lg:leading-tight dark:text-white mb-0.5\">\n                        Sign up for Roots of Progress Substack \n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n                <div class=\"dark:text-white\">\n                        The history of technology and the philosophy of progress\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n            <div>\n                <a class=\"btn btn--bg-blue\" data-trackeraction=\"click-out\" href=\"https:\/\/newsletter.rootsofprogress.org\/\" target=\"_blank\">\n\t\t\t\tSubscribe now\n\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n            <\/div>\n         <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>I feel sorry for the Rev. Thomas Malthus. He was doomed to be misremembered by history.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>His <em>Essay on the Principle of Population<\/em> is remembered as a prophecy of scarcity. But Malthus\u2019s focus was how to <em>deal<\/em> with scarcity, which he took as a given. The subtitle of his book promised \u201cremarks on the speculations of Mr. Godwin, M. Condorcet, and other writers\u201d\u2014utopian thinkers whose visions of the ideal society included universal welfare.<sup>1<\/sup> Malthus countered that if supply of food is limited, then giving alms to the poor will only drive up the price of food\u2014a point of economics on which he was correct.<sup>2<\/sup> The only way to deal with the inherent scarcity of food, he said, was to limit population\u2014and if population were not limited deliberately, through delayed marriage and abstinence, then it would be limited by disaster, such as famine, plague, or war.<sup>3<\/sup> With rational family planning, though, resource catastrophes were avoidable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But what Malthus is remembered for is the starting assumption he tossed off casually in the first chapter: that while population increases exponentially, there was no conceivable way for agricultural production to increase more than linearly. He took this as obvious, not even bothering to give an argument for it beyond failure of imagination:<\/p>\n\n\n<div \n\tclass=\"f-block f-block--blockquote f-block---simple f-blockquote border-l-10 border-gray-200 pl-7 dark:border-gray-800 dark:text-gray-200 text-gray-800 f-content\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<p>If I allow that by the best possible policy\u2026 the produce of this Island [Great Britain] may be doubled in the first twenty-five years, I think it will be allowing as much as any person can well demand.<\/p>\n<p><!-- \/wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --><\/p>\n<p>In the next twenty-five years, it is impossible to suppose that the produce could be quadrupled. \u2026 The very utmost that we can conceive, is, that the increase in the second twenty-five years might equal the present produce. \u2026 The most enthusiastic speculator cannot suppose a greater increase than this.<sup>4<\/sup><\/p>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>But Malthus had the misfortune of writing just at the moment when humanity was about to escape the condition we now give his name to\u2014the Malthusian trap.<sup>5<\/sup> And so he is remembered, not as an economist who warned against subsidizing demand in the face of limited supply (a warning that bears repeating today!), but as a prophet of stagnation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As long as people have noticed progress, they have wondered: will we run out of natural resources? Malthus wrote at the tail end of the era when land, a relatively fixed resource, constrained economic growth. The Industrial Revolution that was just getting underway would change this equation: production would thereafter be driven by machinery and energy. But no sooner had we overcome the limited supply of land than people began to worry about the limited supply of energy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In 1865, William Stanley Jevons wrote <em>The Coal Question: An Inquiry Concerning the Progress of the Nation, and the Probable Exhaustion of Our Coal-mines.<\/em> Collecting statistics on the rate of production of coal, the depth of mines, and the cost of extraction, and comparing them to the growth of population and of industry, he warned that coal would eventually run out\u2014and with it, Britain\u2019s dominance in the world economy. He saw no solutions: not in substitute energy sources, not in fuel imports, not in energy efficiency (which, he pointed out in a famous paradox, tends to <em>increase<\/em> total fuel usage).<sup>6<\/sup> \u201c[I]t will appear that there is no reasonable prospect of any relief\u201d from a future coal shortage, he concluded, and thus \u201cwe cannot long continue our present rate of progress.\u201d<sup>7<\/sup> All Britons could do was pay off their debt while the wealth was still flowing, and resign themselves to inevitable decline.<sup>8<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Jevons did not anticipate what happened next: oil became a still greater resource than coal.<sup>9<\/sup> But even as this happened, many observers, including staunch industrialists, expected those supplies to run out quickly as well. In 1885, less than thirty years after the first oil well, the state geologist of Pennsylvania called oil \u201ca temporary and vanishing phenomenon\u2014one which young men will live to see come to its natural end.\u201d<sup>10<\/sup> Charles Mann recounts:<\/p>\n\n\n<div \n\tclass=\"f-block f-block--blockquote f-block---simple f-blockquote border-l-10 border-gray-200 pl-7 dark:border-gray-800 dark:text-gray-200 text-gray-800 f-content\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<p>Even as oil poured out of Texas, President Theodore Roosevelt in 1908 invited all forty-six U.S. governors to the White House to decry the \u201cimminent exhaustion\u201d of fossil fuels and other natural resources\u2014\u201cthe weightiest problem now before the nation.\u201d Afterward Roosevelt asked the U.S. Geological Survey to assay domestic oil reserves, the first such analysis ever undertaken. Its conclusions, released in 1909, were emphatic: if the nation continued \u201cthe present rate of increase in production,\u201d a \u201cmarked decline\u201d would begin \u201cwithin a very few years.\u201d Output would hit zero about 1935\u2014a prophecy the survey repeated, annual report after annual report, for almost twenty years. \u2026<\/p>\n<p><!-- \/wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --><\/p>\n<p>When I searched through an archive of 1920s newspapers, I turned up more than a thousand articles prophesying an inevitable \u201coil crisis,\u201d \u201coil famine,\u201d or \u201coil shortage.\u201d Some of those articles mentioned that oil executives were baffled by the cries of doom. But the overall tone was ominous. \u201cThe United States is face to face with a near shortage in petroleum supplies so serious it threatens the very economic fabric of the nation,\u201d cried the <em>Los Angeles Times <\/em>in 1923. A year later, the <em>Houston Post-Dispatch<\/em> forecast \u201coil famine within two years.\u201d \u201cOil exhaustion in fifteen or twenty years,\u201d said the <em>Brooklyn Daily Eagle<\/em> in 1925. A special twelve-part wire-service investigation in 1928 flatly decreed, \u201cThere is no possible excuse for assuming an adequate future supply of oil.\u201d<sup>1<\/sup><sup>1<\/sup><\/p>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Fortunes were lost again and again betting on the end of oil. Andrew Carnegie tells of a scheme he invested in during the early days of the industry:<\/p>\n\n\n<div \n\tclass=\"f-block f-block--blockquote f-block---simple f-blockquote border-l-10 border-gray-200 pl-7 dark:border-gray-800 dark:text-gray-200 text-gray-800 f-content\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<p>Mr. Coleman, ever ready at suggestion, proposed to make a lake of oil by excavating a pool sufficient to hold a hundred thousand barrels (the waste to be made good every day by running streams of oil into it), and to hold it for the not far distant day when, as we then expected, the oil supply would cease. This was promptly acted upon, but after losing many thousands of barrels waiting for the expected day (which has not yet arrived) we abandoned the reserve. Coleman predicted that when the supply stopped, oil would bring ten dollars a barrel and therefore we would have a million dollars worth in the lake. We did not think then of Nature\u2019s storehouse below which still keeps on yielding many thousands of barrels per day without apparent exhaustion.<sup>12<\/sup><\/p>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Carl Bosch, the brilliant industrialist behind the Haber-Bosch process that gave synthetic fertilizer to the world, also invested enormous sums of his company\u2019s money developing a process to synthesize gasoline from coal, an expensive way of producing fuel that only made sense in the expectation of a coming shortage.<sup>13<\/sup> Bosch achieved little with this process other than helping the Nazis prolong WW2.<sup>14<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite over a century and a half of worries, worldwide fossil fuel production has grown steadily since Jevons, with only few and minor dips, and is now at an all-time high.<sup>15<\/sup> Britain\u2019s coal reserves did not run out. Its coal production did peak and decline, but as part of a shift to oil and gas, especially after large oil deposits were discovered in the North Sea in the 1970s\u2014Britain actually became a net energy <em>exporter <\/em>in the \u201880s and \u201890s.<sup>16<\/sup> Teddy Roosevelt and the USGS made their predictions before major oil deposits were found in the 1920s and \u201830s in Oklahoma and Texas, and then even bigger deposits in the Middle East. US oil production declined for a while after the 1970s, but fracking and horizontal drilling reversed that trend, and in 2024 US oil production reached an all-time high of 4.8 billion barrels.<sup>17<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1600\" height=\"1600\" src=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/CH7_Global-fossil-fuel-consumption_STYLIZED.png?quality=75&amp;w=1600\" alt=\"Area chart showing global primary energy consumption of coal, oil, and gas from 1800 to 2023, with coal rising first, followed by oil and gas, all increasing steeply after 1950.\" class=\"wp-image-116163\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/CH7_Global-fossil-fuel-consumption_STYLIZED.png 1600w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/CH7_Global-fossil-fuel-consumption_STYLIZED.png?resize=768,768 768w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/CH7_Global-fossil-fuel-consumption_STYLIZED.png?resize=1536,1536 1536w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/CH7_Global-fossil-fuel-consumption_STYLIZED.png?resize=320,320 320w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/CH7_Global-fossil-fuel-consumption_STYLIZED.png?resize=600,600 600w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/CH7_Global-fossil-fuel-consumption_STYLIZED.png?resize=1000,1000 1000w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/CH7_Global-fossil-fuel-consumption_STYLIZED.png?resize=1400,1400 1400w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/CH7_Global-fossil-fuel-consumption_STYLIZED.png?resize=50,50 50w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/CH7_Global-fossil-fuel-consumption_STYLIZED.png?resize=80,80 80w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/CH7_Global-fossil-fuel-consumption_STYLIZED.png?resize=120,120 120w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/CH7_Global-fossil-fuel-consumption_STYLIZED.png?resize=200,200 200w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/CH7_Global-fossil-fuel-consumption_STYLIZED.png?resize=400,400 400w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/CH7_Global-fossil-fuel-consumption_STYLIZED.png?resize=900,900 900w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/CH7_Global-fossil-fuel-consumption_STYLIZED.png?resize=1200,1200 1200w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/CH7_Global-fossil-fuel-consumption_STYLIZED.png?resize=330,330 330w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/CH7_Global-fossil-fuel-consumption_STYLIZED.png?resize=540,540 540w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/CH7_Global-fossil-fuel-consumption_STYLIZED.png?resize=850,850 850w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/CH7_Global-fossil-fuel-consumption_STYLIZED.png?resize=175,175 175w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/CH7_Global-fossil-fuel-consumption_STYLIZED.png?resize=275,275 275w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/CH7_Global-fossil-fuel-consumption_STYLIZED.png?resize=360,360 360w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/CH7_Global-fossil-fuel-consumption_STYLIZED.png?resize=500,500 500w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Fossil fuels are not the only resource people thought would run out. Metals have been a popular concern as well. In the 1870s, geologist Eduard Suess warned that \u201cfrom geologic indications we must expect in the future a scarcity of gold,\u201d expecting that silver would fully replace it as money.<sup>18<\/sup> Ed Conway recounts in <em>Material World<\/em> that when copper became crucial to the electric industry, \u201cwise observers of the day predicted that the new technology of electricity would be toppled by its reliance on this scarce natural resource. In 1924 prominent geologist Ira Joralemon predicted that \u2018the copper supply of the world will last hardly a score of years,\u2019 adding: \u2018Our civilization based on electrical power will dwindle and die.\u2019\u201d<sup>19<\/sup> We did, in fact, use up the best grades of copper ore, which dropped from 12% or more of copper in the 18th century to less than 1% by the end of the 20th. It now takes 16 times as much stone to produce a unit of copper as it did in 1900. But the price of copper since then has remained mostly flat, because we\u2019re also about 16 times more efficient at extraction.<sup>20<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Steven Pinker suggests that:<\/p>\n\n\n<div \n\tclass=\"f-block f-block--blockquote f-block---simple f-blockquote border-l-10 border-gray-200 pl-7 dark:border-gray-800 dark:text-gray-200 text-gray-800 f-content\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<p>When predictions of apocalyptic resource shortages repeatedly fail to come true, one has to conclude either that humanity has miraculously escaped from certain death again and again like a Hollywood action hero or that there is a flaw in the thinking that predicts apocalyptic resource shortages.<\/p>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>What is that flaw? First, shortages are often predicted based on proven reserves: resources that are known to exist <em>and <\/em>to be economical to extract with current technology. But proven reserves can thus expand when we discover new deposits or improve our technology, or when the price of a resource rises, making it profitable to work marginally productive reserves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Nor is it a coincidence when this happens just in time to rescue us from a shortage: it is the shortage itself, or the prospect of one, that drives these factors. Shortages raise prices, and anticipation of future demand motivates the search for both new deposits and new technologies. As Tyler Cowen has said and I have often repeated, \u201cNever underestimate elasticity of supply.\u201d<sup>21<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On the demand side, the same factors drive the search for efficiency and for substitutes. Thus, when specific resources do truly run out, we switch to other ways of satisfying the same need. We saw an example of this in Chapter 5, when the imminent exhaustion of natural fertilizer motivated innovation in synthetic fertilizer. This was part of a general theme of the late 19th and early 20th century: the shift from unscalable biological resources to far more abundant mineral resources. Whale oil for lighting, for instance, was replaced by kerosene.<sup>22<\/sup> Similarly, using tortoise shells for combs and brushes, or elephant tusks for piano keys and billiard balls, was unsustainable; and fears of elephant extinction drove the search for substitutes that ultimately helped to create the plastic industry.<sup>23<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Any resource is just a solution to a problem. It was selected because it was the most effective, abundant, or cheap. If it stops being the best way to solve the problem, we can find a different solution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And we usually do. Rarely if ever have we suffered a <em>catastrophic<\/em> resource shortage. The most compelling examples are the ones furthest back in history\u2014the megafauna hunted to extinction in prehistoric times; or silphium, a plant used by ancient Romans for food, perfume, and medicine, and evidently used up in the first century BC<sup>24<\/sup>\u2014bolstering my contention that human agency has increased over time. When Ed Conway, author of <em>Material World<\/em>, decided to start a series of essays on \u201clost materials,\u201d he canceled it after one installment:<\/p>\n\n\n<div \n\tclass=\"f-block f-block--blockquote f-block---simple f-blockquote border-l-10 border-gray-200 pl-7 dark:border-gray-800 dark:text-gray-200 text-gray-800 f-content\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<p>[I]n trying to hunt around for minerals we have run out of, I came to an unexpected conclusion. So far, we haven\u2019t really, meaningfully run out of, well, pretty much anything. \u2026 while we like to tell ourselves humankind has exhausted this or that resource, we are much better at talking about it than actually, well, exhausting said resource.<sup>25<\/sup><\/p>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Keep all this in mind when you hear about an imminent lithium shortage, or that \u201cthe world is running out of sand,\u201d or that all of world semiconductor manufacturing crucially depends on a specific variety of extremely pure quartz found only in a single town in North Carolina.<sup>26<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The fundamental mistake behind the predictions of resource doom is thinking of fuels or metals or plants as \u201cnatural\u201d resources. <em>There are no natural resources.<\/em><sup>27<\/sup> All resources are artificial: the product of knowledge. Iron ore is useless without the knowledge of how to smelt it and work the result. Sand becomes far more valuable when we know how to turn it into integrated circuits. Even water needs to be purified for health, and needs extensive systems to make sure it\u2019s available when and where we want it. Even fire, as David Deutsch eloquently explains:<\/p>\n\n\n<div \n\tclass=\"f-block f-block--blockquote f-block---simple f-blockquote border-l-10 border-gray-200 pl-7 dark:border-gray-800 dark:text-gray-200 text-gray-800 f-content\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<p>Before our ancestors learned how to make fire artificially\u2026 people must have died of exposure literally on top of the means of making the fires that would have saved their lives, because they did not know how. In a parochial sense, the weather killed them; but the deeper explanation is lack of knowledge.<sup>28<\/sup><\/p>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>By about 1970, one might have expected that the world had internalized this lesson. Since Malthus first wrote, GDP <em>per capita<\/em> had risen over 5x in the UK, over 9x in the US and Germany, and almost 11x in Japan\u2014even as the populations of these countries had tripled, quadrupled, or in the case of the US, grown well over 30x.<sup>29<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But history does not interpret itself. Instead of going away, Malthusianism returned with a vengeance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In 1972, a group of researchers at MIT published a report on the future of industrial civilization, based on what was for the time a sophisticated computer model of the industrial economy and the global ecosystem. Their guiding philosophy and their bottom-line conclusion were contained in the title: <em>The Limits to Growth.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>They had run dozens of scenarios for the future of humanity, and the picture was bleak: <em>\u201cThe basic behavior mode of the world system is exponential growth of population and capital, followed by collapse\u201d<\/em> (emphasis original).<sup>30<\/sup> If world population and the economy were allowed to grow exponentially, then both population and living standards would crash as we used up all the world\u2019s resources.<sup>31<\/sup> If we solved the resource problem, then the world would be poisoned by pollution.<sup>32<\/sup> If we controlled pollution, then we would succumb to famine as we ran out of farmland.<sup>33<\/sup> If we increased agricultural yields, one of the other problems would return.<sup>34<\/sup> If we tried to solve all of this using birth control, bringing world population growth to zero, then we would still suffer from resource shortages and pollution as long as industry was allowed to grow.<sup>35<\/sup> The only way to stave off catastrophe was to stop both population growth <em>and <\/em>industrial growth, and to throw all of our efforts at resource efficiency and pollution control\u2014a world of complete stasis.<sup>36<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But all the <em>Limits <\/em>authors had done was to take the old Malthusian assumption of fixed resources and formalize it in a computational model. The model was not validated against or fit to historical data. It had no term to represent the advance of technology\u2014even though economists, who <em>were <\/em>trying to fit the data, had incorporated such a term into their models since the 1950s.<sup>37<\/sup> They claimed to take technology into account, even devoting a whole chapter of the report to it, but they modeled technological effects as one-time changes to certain parameters, such as pollution intensity or agricultural yields\u2014not as an ongoing, cumulative process of improvement. This choice was a philosophical position: they believed that \u201ctechnological optimism is the most common and the most dangerous reaction to our findings from the world model. Technology can relieve the symptoms of a problem without affecting the underlying causes. Faith in technology as the ultimate solution to all problems can thus divert our attention from the most fundamental problem\u2014the problem of growth in a finite system\u2014and prevent us from taking effective action to solve it.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Their modeling forecast \u201ca desperate land shortage before the year 2000 if per capita land requirements and population growth rates remain as they are today.\u201d<sup>38<\/sup> But per capita land requirements did not remain as they were: cereal yields since 1972 have doubled, allowing us to feed a growing population with less than a 10% increase in land usage.<sup>39<\/sup> \u201cEven the ocean,\u201d they said, \u201cwhich once appeared virtually inexhaustible, is losing species after species of its commercially useful animals. Recent FAO statistics indicate that the total catch of the world&#8217;s fisheries decreased in 1969 for the first time since 1950, in spite of more mechanized and intensive fishing practices.\u201d<sup>40<\/sup> But fish and seafood production continued unabated, and have tripled in volume since the book was published.<sup>41<\/sup> They thought it \u201cunlikely\u201d that the world population would reach much above 8 billion without a rise in the death rate from factors such as pollution and famine.<sup>42<\/sup> Population passed 8 billion in 2022; the death rate has continued to fall, and is now about 40% below its 1972 levels.<sup>43<\/sup> The authors disclaimed that their model could not make exact predictions, only demonstrate the general dynamics of a system; and in any case, their main prediction of global collapse was only supposed to arrive sometime in the 21st century. But they felt that the conclusions were certain enough to warrant immediate action to slow growth.<sup>44<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>The Limits to Growth <\/em>was just one of several books in that era sounding the klaxon over population growth: we\u2019ve already mentioned some others, such as <em>The Population Bomb <\/em>and <em>Famine 1975!. <\/em>Fear of \u201coverpopulation\u201d is the logical conclusion of the focus on fixed, \u201cnatural\u201d resources: if resources are fixed, then more people implies diminished resources per capita.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This logic is called \u201cMalthusian,\u201d but even Malthus at least allowed for <em>some <\/em>ongoing rate of technological improvement; he just thought it could never keep up with the exponential growth of population. And he at least had the excuse that this assumption was true up until his time, and the acceleration of growth before his era was too slow to be noticeable given the scant data available to him. The neo-Malthusians of recent decades give Malthus a bad name: they are more pessimistic and with less excuse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>The Limits to Growth <\/em>called its static world \u201cequilibrium,\u201d but this concept soon became known as \u201csustainability.\u201d It is the ideal of moderating our consumption and choosing technologies and resources such that the same processes and way of life can be maintained indefinitely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cSustainability\u201d is a disastrous concept. It is based on false assumptions and on the wrong moral standard. It negates the basic principles of techno-humanism. This concept must be destroyed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There is no inherent superiority to a process that can go unmodified indefinitely.<sup>45<\/sup> If our standard is human well-being, then what we want to sustain is not a particular mode of production. What we want to sustain is <em>growth and progress<\/em>. \u201cSustainability\u201d is actually <em>stagnation,<\/em> the opposite of progress. In the words of David Deutch, it means \u201cforcing the future world into our image, endlessly reproducing our lifestyle, our misconceptions and our mistakes.\u201d<sup>46<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To sustain progress means to <em>not <\/em>use any one resource or technology forever. Each particular mode of production is temporary. Often, instead of being forced onto a new technology by resource scarcity, we willingly abandon an old process simply because we invented something better. The stone age didn\u2019t end because we ran out of stones, nor did the iron age begin when we ran out of bronze, nor did oil rise when we ran out of coal, nor did we invent the Internet because we ran out of paper.<sup>47<\/sup> What matters about a particular process is not whether it can last indefinitely, but whether it can last until it is obsoleted by an improved successor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In this light, we should redefine what it means for a resource to be \u201csustainable.\u201d In common usage, resources are considered \u201csustainable\u201d if they are regenerated on short timescales, regardless of their cost or abundance. Instead, resources should be considered sustainable only so long as they can grow along with the economy. \u201cSustainable\u201d biological feedstocks for commodities such as fuel or plastics, for instance, are a bizarre regress to the <em>unsustainable<\/em> pre-industrial reliance on plant and animal resources\u2014such as guano fertilizer, whale oil, and elephant ivory\u2014that we moved on from in the 19th century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Discussions about \u201csustainability\u201d often equivocate between moral and practical concerns. On its face, \u201csustainability\u201d can be posed as a practical argument: its advocates warn against impending doom and talk about progress as an unhealthy \u201caddiction.\u201d But underneath is a moral argument that rests on denial of the value of progress: an exaggeration of the costs and minimization of the benefits. The \u201csustainability\u201d ideal is a fantasy world in which people can be perfectly well-off, even <em>better<\/em> off, with reduced consumption and slower growth. The <em>Limits to Growth <\/em>authors claimed that \u201cglobal equilibrium need not mean an end to progress or human development,\u201d and even that innovation would be <em>more <\/em>likely in a world without growth.<sup>48<\/sup> It is telling that the examples of progress they envision are all \u201cgreen\u201d technologies such as recycling, solar power, natural pest control, and contraception\u2014all focused on reducing human impact, and very little on improving human well-being. In an afterword, the committee that commissioned the work stated that \u201cno fundamental human value would be endangered by a leveling off of demographic growth.\u201d<sup>49<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Such statements neglect the effects discussed in Chapter 3: economies of scale, network effects, and the non-rivalry of ideas that allows everyone to benefit from anyone\u2019s discovery or invention. They belie a deeply impoverished view of humanity\u2019s potential: a world with less pollution and lower mortality perhaps, but with no increase in material wealth, no reduction in physical labor, no bigger homes, no faster transportation, no space exploration, no (energy-hungry) artificial intelligence. This \u201csustainable\u201d future would not be a victory for humanity, but a defeat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Deutch captures the clash of ideas here as, at heart, two different conceptions of people:<\/p>\n\n\n<div \n\tclass=\"f-block f-block--blockquote f-block---simple f-blockquote border-l-10 border-gray-200 pl-7 dark:border-gray-800 dark:text-gray-200 text-gray-800 f-content\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<p>In the pessimistic conception, they are wasters\u2026 In the optimistic conception\u2026 people are problem-solvers: creators of the unsustainable solution and hence also of the next problem. In the pessimistic conception, that distinctive ability of people is a disease for which sustainability is the cure. In the optimistic one, <strong>sustainability is the disease and people are the cure.<\/strong><sup>50<\/sup><\/p>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cInfinite growth is impossible on a finite planet,\u201d I hear them rebuking me right now.<sup>51<\/sup> Literally, this is true\u2014but it does not imply that stagnation is imminent. There are many orders of magnitude left to grow. From where we stand, growth is <em>practically<\/em> if not literally infinite: the true limits to growth are currently unknowable and need not affect any decisions we make today. As we saw in Chapter 5, Earth has truly massive energy resources: incoming solar alone is almost ten thousand times our current energy usage; fusion fuel resources are potentially more than a billion times annual consumption. Deposits of iron, copper, aluminum, nickel, and lithium are all estimated to be almost 100 times current annual material usage or more; phosphate and potash (used in fertilizer) over 1,000 times; salt and sulfur millions of times.<sup>52<\/sup> Limestone is so abundant that the USGS doesn\u2019t even bother to estimate reserves, simply calling them \u201csufficient\u201d; and arguably the most important resource today\u2014silicon\u2014is effectively inexhaustible, as it makes up 27% of the Earth\u2019s crust.<sup>53<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And of course, we are not limited to Earth\u2014by the time we come anywhere close to using up the mass and energy on our home world, we\u2019ll be ready to make use of the solar system and someday the galaxy. Our only real limits are those imposed by physics\u2014the speed of light, the matter and energy within our lightcone, the time remaining until the heat death of the universe. If we ever reach those, humanity will have had a pretty good run.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p>1: Malthus, <em>An Essay on the Principle of Population,<\/em> 46\u20137, 55\u20138.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>2: Malthus, 24\u20135.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>3: Malthus, 41\u20134.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>4: Malthus, 7.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>5: See Chapter 6.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>6: Jevons, <em>The<\/em> <em>Coal Question.<\/em> Substitutes: 117ff; imports: 220ff; efficiency: 102ff.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>7: Jevons, <em>Coal Question<\/em>, xiv\u2013xvi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>8: Jevons, <em>Coal Question<\/em>, 339, 347\u20139.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>9: Jevons, <em>Coal Question,<\/em> 141.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>10: Yergin, <em>The Prize,<\/em> 52.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>11: Mann, <em>The Wizard and the Prophet<\/em>, 260\u20133.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>12: Carnegie, <em>Autobiography,<\/em> 138 .<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>13: Hager, <em>Alchemy of Air<\/em>, 225\u20136, 230; Yergin, <em>The Prize<\/em>, 314.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>14: Hager, <em>Alchemy of Air<\/em>, 263, 265\u20136.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>15: Ritchie and Rosado, \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/ourworldindata.org\/fossil-fuels\">Fossil Fuels<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>16: OWID, \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/ourworldindata.org\/death-uk-coal\">The Death of UK Coal in 5 Charts<\/a>\u201d; OWID, \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/ourworldindata.org\/grapher\/fossil-fuel-production-over-the-long-term\">Fossil Fuel Production Over the Long Term, UK<\/a>\u201d; ONS, \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/ourworldindata.org\/death-uk-coal\">UK Energy: How Much, What Type, Where From?<\/a>\u201d; EIA, \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/todayinenergy\/detail.php?id=35912\">Coal Power Generation Declines in UK<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>17: US Energy Information Association, \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/dnav\/pet\/pet_crd_crpdn_adc_mbbl_a.htm\">Crude Oil Production<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>18: Suess, <em>The Future of Silver,<\/em> 3.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>19: Conway, <em>Material World<\/em>, 282.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>20: Conway, <em>Material World<\/em>, 282\u20134.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>21: Cowen, \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/marginalrevolution.com\/marginalrevolution\/2024\/06\/friday-assorted-links-473.html%20\">Friday Assorted LInks<\/a>,\u201d June 14, 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>22: This story has been told many times; see for example Richard Rhodes, Energy, 140ff.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>23: Fenichell, <em>Plastic<\/em>, 38\u201341.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>24: Gorvet, \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/future\/article\/20170907-the-mystery-of-the-lost-roman-herb\">The Mystery of the Lost Roman Herb<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>25: Conway, \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/edconway.substack.com\/p\/hang-on-are-there-any-lost-minerals%20\">Hang on, are there ANY lost minerals?<\/a>\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>26: Beiser, \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/future\/article\/20191108-why-the-world-is-running-out-of-sand\">Why the World is Running Out of Sand<\/a>\u201d; Ying Shan, \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2023\/08\/29\/a-worldwide-lithium-shortage-could-come-as-soon-as-2025.html\">A Worldwide Lithium Shortage Could Come As Soon As 2025<\/a>\u201d; Potter, \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.construction-physics.com\/p\/does-all-semiconductor-manufacturing\">Does All Semiconductor Manufacturing Depend on Spruce Pine Quartz?<\/a>\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>27: I\u2019m not the first to make this point. E.g., Boudreaux, \u2018<a href=\"https:\/\/archive.triblive.com\/news\/the-ultimate-scholar\/\">The Ultimate Scholar<\/a>\u201d and \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/thedailyeconomy.org\/article\/there-are-no-natural-resources\/%20\">There Are No Natural Resources<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>28: Deutsch, <em>The Beginning of Infinity<\/em>, 207.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>29: OWID, \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/ourworldindata.org\/grapher\/gdp-per-capita-maddison-project-database?tab=slope&amp;time=1798..1970&amp;country=USA~GBR~DEU~JPN\">GDP Per Capita, 1798-1970<\/a>,\u201d \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/ourworldindata.org\/grapher\/population?time=1798..1970&amp;country=USA~GBR~DEU~JPN%20\">Population, 1800-1970<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>30: Meadows et. al, <em>The Limits to Growth<\/em>, 142.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>31: Meadows et. al, <em>The Limits to Growth<\/em>, 124\u20135.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>32: Meadows et. al, <em>The Limits to Growth<\/em>, 126\u20137, 132\u20133.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>33: Meadows et. al, <em>The Limits to Growth<\/em>, 136\u20137.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>34: Meadows et. al, <em>The Limits to Growth<\/em>, 137\u201341.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>35: Meadows et. al, <em>The Limits to Growth<\/em>, 160\u20131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>36: Meadows et. al, <em>The Limits to Growth<\/em>, 163\u20138.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>37: The Solow model, which we\u2019ll cover later in this chapter, includes a term for technological growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>38: Meadows et. al, <em>The Limits to Growth<\/em>, 51.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>39: OWID, \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/ourworldindata.org\/grapher\/index-of-cereal-production-yield-and-land-use?time=1972..latest%20\">Change in cereal production, yield, land use and population<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>40: Meadows et. al, <em>The Limits to Growth<\/em>, 151.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>41: OWID, \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/ourworldindata.org\/grapher\/fish-seafood-production?tab=chart&amp;country=~OWID_WRL%20\">Fish and Seafood Production<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>42: Meadows et. al, <em>The Limits to Growth<\/em>, 183.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>43: OWID, \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/ourworldindata.org\/grapher\/crude-death-rate?tab=chart%20\">Crude Death Rate<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>44: Meadows et. al, <em>The Limits to Growth<\/em>, 182\u20133.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>45: I owe this formulation to Alex Epstein, see e.g. <em>Fossil Future,<\/em> 377; his emphasis on \u201cevolution\u201d here echoes David Deutch\u2019s focus on \u201cprogress.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>46: Deutsch, <em>The Beginning of Infinity<\/em>, 441.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>47: The \u201cstone age\u201d quip was frequently used by Saudi oil minister Ahmed Zaki Yamani, and is often attributed to him (although others have used it as well and the origin is unclear), e.g. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.telegraph.co.uk\/news\/uknews\/1344823\/Farewell-to-riches-of-the-earth.html\">https:\/\/www.telegraph.co.uk\/news\/uknews\/1344823\/Farewell-to-riches-of-the-earth.html<\/a>. Credit to Quote Investigator for researching this phrase.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>48: Meadows et. al, <em>The Limits to Growth<\/em>, 179.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>49: Meadows et. al, <em>The Limits to Growth<\/em>, 191.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>50: Deutsch, <em>The Beginning of Infinity<\/em>, 435. Emphasis added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>51: See for example Schumacher, <em>Small is Beautiful,<\/em> Chapter 8.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>52: USGS, \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.usgs.gov\/centers\/national-minerals-information-center\/commodity-statistics-and-information\">Commodity Statistic and Information<\/a>,\u201d see 2025 Annual Mineral Commodity Summaries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>53: USGS, \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/pubs.usgs.gov\/periodicals\/mcs2024\/mcs2024-stone-dimension.pdf\">Stone (Dimension)<\/a>\u201d; Tikkanen, \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.britannica.com\/science\/silicon\">Silicon<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>From where we stand, the true limits to growth are currently unknowable and need not affect any decisions we make today. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":25,"featured_media":116164,"template":"","ftm_taxonomy_fields":[79,98],"ftm_taxonomy_challenges":[],"ftm_taxonomy_statuses":[36],"ftm_taxonomy_hidden_tags":[1965],"class_list":["post-116162","ftm_article","type-ftm_article","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","ftm_taxonomy_fields-economics","ftm_taxonomy_fields-history","ftm_taxonomy_statuses-featured"],"acf":[],"apple_news_notices":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v26.9) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Predictions of resource scarcity have a fundamental flaw<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"From where we stand, the true limits to growth are currently unknowable and need not affect any decisions we make today.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/the-material-world\/techno-humanist-manifesto-chapter-7-section-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Predictions of resource scarcity have a fundamental flaw\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"From where we stand, the true limits to growth are currently unknowable and need not affect any decisions we make today.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/the-material-world\/techno-humanist-manifesto-chapter-7-section-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Freethink\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-06-03T22:03:53+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/the-problem-solving-animal_compressed.jpg?resize=1200,630\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"630\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"It\u2019s not depletion we should fear \u2014 it\u2019s stagnation.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"18 minutes\" \/>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO Premium plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Predictions of resource scarcity have a fundamental flaw","description":"From where we stand, the true limits to growth are currently unknowable and need not affect any decisions we make today.","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/the-material-world\/techno-humanist-manifesto-chapter-7-section-1","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Predictions of resource scarcity have a fundamental flaw","og_description":"From where we stand, the true limits to growth are currently unknowable and need not affect any decisions we make today.","og_url":"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/the-material-world\/techno-humanist-manifesto-chapter-7-section-1","og_site_name":"Freethink","article_modified_time":"2025-06-03T22:03:53+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1200,"height":630,"url":"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/the-problem-solving-animal_compressed.jpg?resize=1200,630","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_description":"It\u2019s not depletion we should fear \u2014 it\u2019s stagnation.","twitter_misc":{"Est. reading time":"18 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/the-material-world\/techno-humanist-manifesto-chapter-7-section-1#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/the-material-world\/techno-humanist-manifesto-chapter-7-section-1"},"author":{"name":"kristinhouser","@id":"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/#\/schema\/person\/e45bf79276f6c14454ee4e1dfa7aca8c"},"headline":"Predictions of resource scarcity have a fundamental flaw","datePublished":"2025-06-02T16:00:00+00:00","dateModified":"2025-06-03T22:03:53+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/the-material-world\/techno-humanist-manifesto-chapter-7-section-1"},"wordCount":3771,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/the-material-world\/techno-humanist-manifesto-chapter-7-section-1#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/the-problem-solving-animal_compressed.jpg?quality=75","inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/the-material-world\/techno-humanist-manifesto-chapter-7-section-1","url":"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/the-material-world\/techno-humanist-manifesto-chapter-7-section-1","name":"Predictions of resource scarcity have a fundamental flaw","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/the-material-world\/techno-humanist-manifesto-chapter-7-section-1#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/the-material-world\/techno-humanist-manifesto-chapter-7-section-1#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/the-problem-solving-animal_compressed.jpg?quality=75","datePublished":"2025-06-02T16:00:00+00:00","dateModified":"2025-06-03T22:03:53+00:00","description":"From where we stand, the true limits to growth are currently unknowable and need not affect any decisions we make today.","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/the-material-world\/techno-humanist-manifesto-chapter-7-section-1#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/the-material-world\/techno-humanist-manifesto-chapter-7-section-1"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/the-material-world\/techno-humanist-manifesto-chapter-7-section-1#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/the-problem-solving-animal_compressed.jpg?quality=75","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/the-problem-solving-animal_compressed.jpg?quality=75","width":3200,"height":1800,"caption":"A graphic featuring industrial machinery, a historic portrait, Earth, and the text \"The Problem-Solving Animal 7\" on a grid background in orange and beige tones."},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/the-material-world\/techno-humanist-manifesto-chapter-7-section-1#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Articles","item":"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/articles"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Predictions of resource scarcity have a fundamental flaw"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/","name":"Freethink","description":"Move the world","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/#organization","name":"Freethink Media","url":"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/logo.svg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/logo.svg","width":651,"height":124,"caption":"Freethink Media"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"}},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/#\/schema\/person\/e45bf79276f6c14454ee4e1dfa7aca8c","name":"kristinhouser","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/ff88759e0ed195de655c7703310050f17b921ae4fc276d7eb5930cddafa694f9?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/ff88759e0ed195de655c7703310050f17b921ae4fc276d7eb5930cddafa694f9?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"kristinhouser"},"url":"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/author\/kristinhouser"}]}},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ftm_article\/116162","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ftm_article"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/ftm_article"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/25"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/116164"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=116162"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"ftm_taxonomy_fields","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ftm_taxonomy_fields?post=116162"},{"taxonomy":"ftm_taxonomy_challenges","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ftm_taxonomy_challenges?post=116162"},{"taxonomy":"ftm_taxonomy_statuses","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ftm_taxonomy_statuses?post=116162"},{"taxonomy":"ftm_taxonomy_hidden_tags","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ftm_taxonomy_hidden_tags?post=116162"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}