{"id":115962,"date":"2025-04-22T14:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-04-22T18:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/?post_type=ftm_article&#038;p=115962"},"modified":"2025-06-03T18:02:04","modified_gmt":"2025-06-03T22:02:04","slug":"techno-humanist-manifesto-chapter-6","status":"publish","type":"ftm_article","link":"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/the-material-world\/techno-humanist-manifesto-chapter-6","title":{"rendered":"Why progress was so slow, for so long"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"hidden sm:block md:block relative z-10 f-block f-block--content-series-slider f-block--tighter f-block--full b-css\">\n    <div class=\"f-block__inner\">\n        <div class=\"f-block__content f-block__content--no-grid f-block__content--padded\">\n            <div class=\"py-3 border-t border-b border-gray-20 dark:border-none flex w-full max-w-full justify-items-stretch gap-x-9\">\n                <div class=\"flex-grow-0 flex-shrink-0 w-36 md:w-40\">\n                    <div class=\"eyebrow mb-1 dark:text-gray-400\">\n                        Jason Crawford                    <\/div>\n                                            <div class=\"font-archivo tracking-tight text-2xl md:text-2xl leading-5 md:leading-6 font-extrabold\">\n                            <a class=\"text-black dark:text-white dark:hover:text-white hover:text-black focus:text-black hover:underline-thickness focus:underline-thickness\" href=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/collections\/the-techno-humanist-manifesto\">                            The Techno-Humanist Manifesto                            <\/a>                        <\/div>\n                                        <\/div>\n                <div class=\"relative flex-grow-1 w-full px-8 h-20\">\n                    <!-- navigation buttons -->\n                    <div class=\"swiper-button-prev absolute z-10 left-0 w-7 flex-row flex justify-center items-center top-0 h-full bg-white dark:bg-transparent swiper-button-disabled\">\n     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     <\/div>\n                    \n                    <div class=\"relative w-full\">\n                                                    <div class=\"absolute top-0 left-0 overflow-x-hidden w-full max-w-full\">\n                                <script>\n                                if (!window.freethink_scroller_config) {\n                                    window.freethink_scroller_config = [];\n                                }\n                                window.freethink_scroller_config['slider_1'] = {\n                                    slidesPerView: 1,\n                                    spaceBetween: 20,\n                                    breakpoints: {\n                                        768: {\n                                            slidesPerView: 2,\n                                        },\n                                        1024: {\n                                            slidesPerView: 3,\n                                        },\n   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href=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/opinion\/techno-humanist-manifesto-chapter-11\">\n                                                            <img decoding=\"async\" width=\"80\" height=\"80\" src=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/The-Progress-Agenda_compressed.jpg?quality=75&amp;w=80&amp;h=80&amp;crop=1\" class=\"attachment-preview_square_xs size-preview_square_xs\" alt=\"Abstract collage with arrows, a person skating, a woman using a microscope, scientific illustrations, and the text &quot;The Progress Agenda 11&quot; on a grid background.\" sizes=\"80px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/The-Progress-Agenda_compressed.jpg?resize=50,50 50w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/The-Progress-Agenda_compressed.jpg?resize=80,80 80w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/The-Progress-Agenda_compressed.jpg?resize=120,120 120w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/The-Progress-Agenda_compressed.jpg?resize=200,200 200w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/The-Progress-Agenda_compressed.jpg?resize=400,400 400w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/The-Progress-Agenda_compressed.jpg?resize=600,600 600w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/The-Progress-Agenda_compressed.jpg?resize=900,900 900w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/The-Progress-Agenda_compressed.jpg?resize=1200,1200 1200w\" \/>                                                        <\/a>\n                                                    <\/div>\n                                                    <div class=\"flex-grow-1\">\n                                                        <a class=\"font-archivo text-black dark:text-white dark:hover:text-white inline-block hover:text-black focus:text-black text-sm tracking-tight leading-4 font-bold line-clamp-5\" href=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/opinion\/techno-humanist-manifesto-chapter-11\">\n                                                            A playbook for the next century of progress                                                        <\/a>\n                                                    <\/div>\n                                                <\/div>\n                                            <\/div>\n                                                                                        <div class=\"block b-css__slide swiper-slide w-72\">\n                                                <div class=\"flex gap-4\">\n                                                    <div class=\"text-bold w-20 flex-shrink-0\">\n                                                        <a href=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/opinion\/techno-humanist-manifesto-chapter-10\">\n                                                            <img decoding=\"async\" width=\"80\" height=\"80\" src=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/the-grand-project_compressed.jpg?quality=75&amp;w=80&amp;h=80&amp;crop=1\" class=\"attachment-preview_square_xs size-preview_square_xs\" alt=\"Collage featuring a knight on horseback, microscope, Golden Gate Bridge, geometric shapes, and the text &quot;The 10 Grand Project&quot; in bold red letters.\" sizes=\"80px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/the-grand-project_compressed.jpg?resize=50,50 50w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/the-grand-project_compressed.jpg?resize=80,80 80w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/the-grand-project_compressed.jpg?resize=120,120 120w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/the-grand-project_compressed.jpg?resize=200,200 200w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/the-grand-project_compressed.jpg?resize=400,400 400w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/the-grand-project_compressed.jpg?resize=600,600 600w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/the-grand-project_compressed.jpg?resize=900,900 900w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/the-grand-project_compressed.jpg?resize=1200,1200 1200w\" \/>                                                        <\/a>\n                                                    <\/div>\n                                                    <div class=\"flex-grow-1\">\n                                                        <a class=\"font-archivo text-black dark:text-white dark:hover:text-white inline-block hover:text-black focus:text-black text-sm tracking-tight leading-4 font-bold line-clamp-5\" href=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/opinion\/techno-humanist-manifesto-chapter-10\">\n                                                            Progress is a grand project for humanity                                                        <\/a>\n                                                    <\/div>\n                                                <\/div>\n                                            <\/div>\n                                                                                        <div class=\"block b-css__slide swiper-slide w-72\">\n                                                <div class=\"flex gap-4\">\n                                                    <div class=\"text-bold w-20 flex-shrink-0\">\n                                                        <a href=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/the-material-world\/techno-humanist-manifesto-chapter-9-section-2\">\n                                                            <img decoding=\"async\" width=\"80\" height=\"80\" src=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/9.2-the-spirit-we-lost_pt-2.jpg?quality=75&amp;w=80&amp;h=80&amp;crop=1\" class=\"attachment-preview_square_xs size-preview_square_xs\" alt=\"A collage with vintage industrial images, a map, a car, a mushroom cloud, and the text \u201cThe Spirit We Lost\u201d alongside the number 9 in the top right corner.\" sizes=\"80px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/9.2-the-spirit-we-lost_pt-2.jpg?resize=50,50 50w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/9.2-the-spirit-we-lost_pt-2.jpg?resize=80,80 80w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/9.2-the-spirit-we-lost_pt-2.jpg?resize=120,120 120w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/9.2-the-spirit-we-lost_pt-2.jpg?resize=200,200 200w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/9.2-the-spirit-we-lost_pt-2.jpg?resize=400,400 400w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/9.2-the-spirit-we-lost_pt-2.jpg?resize=600,600 600w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/9.2-the-spirit-we-lost_pt-2.jpg?resize=900,900 900w\" \/>                                                        <\/a>\n                                                    <\/div>\n                                                    <div class=\"flex-grow-1\">\n                                                        <a class=\"font-archivo text-black dark:text-white dark:hover:text-white inline-block hover:text-black focus:text-black text-sm tracking-tight leading-4 font-bold line-clamp-5\" href=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/the-material-world\/techno-humanist-manifesto-chapter-9-section-2\">\n                                                            How technocracy made us doubt progress                                                        <\/a>\n                                                    <\/div>\n                                                <\/div>\n                                            <\/div>\n                                                                                        <div class=\"block b-css__slide swiper-slide w-72\">\n                                                <div class=\"flex gap-4\">\n                                                    <div class=\"text-bold w-20 flex-shrink-0\">\n                                                        <a href=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/the-material-world\/techno-humanist-manifesto-chapter-9-section-1\">\n                                                            <img decoding=\"async\" width=\"80\" height=\"80\" src=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/the-spirit-we-lost_compressed.png?quality=75&amp;w=80&amp;h=80&amp;crop=1\" class=\"attachment-preview_square_xs size-preview_square_xs\" alt=\"Collage of vintage technology images, including a flying car, machinery, and early airplane, over a grid background with the text &quot;The Spirit We Lost&quot; and the number 9.\" sizes=\"80px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/the-spirit-we-lost_compressed.png?resize=50,50 50w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/the-spirit-we-lost_compressed.png?resize=80,80 80w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/the-spirit-we-lost_compressed.png?resize=120,120 120w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/the-spirit-we-lost_compressed.png?resize=200,200 200w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/the-spirit-we-lost_compressed.png?resize=400,400 400w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/the-spirit-we-lost_compressed.png?resize=600,600 600w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/the-spirit-we-lost_compressed.png?resize=900,900 900w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/the-spirit-we-lost_compressed.png?resize=1200,1200 1200w\" \/>                                                        <\/a>\n                                                    <\/div>\n                                                    <div class=\"flex-grow-1\">\n                                                        <a class=\"font-archivo text-black dark:text-white dark:hover:text-white inline-block hover:text-black focus:text-black text-sm tracking-tight leading-4 font-bold line-clamp-5\" href=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/the-material-world\/techno-humanist-manifesto-chapter-9-section-1\">\n                                                            We used to celebrate science and innovation                                                        <\/a>\n                                                    <\/div>\n                                                <\/div>\n                                            <\/div>\n                                                                                        <div class=\"block b-css__slide swiper-slide w-72\">\n                                                <div class=\"flex gap-4\">\n                                                    <div class=\"text-bold w-20 flex-shrink-0\">\n                                                        <a href=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/opinion\/techno-humanist-manifesto-chapter-8-section-2\">\n                                                            <img decoding=\"async\" width=\"80\" height=\"80\" src=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/unlimited-horizon_pt-2.jpg?quality=75&amp;w=80&amp;h=80&amp;crop=1\" class=\"attachment-preview_square_xs size-preview_square_xs\" alt=\"A collage with a DNA strand, a virus, a tomato, an airplane, an autonomous car, and the text &quot;The Unlimited Horizon 8&quot; on a grid background.\" sizes=\"80px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/unlimited-horizon_pt-2.jpg?resize=50,50 50w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/unlimited-horizon_pt-2.jpg?resize=80,80 80w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/unlimited-horizon_pt-2.jpg?resize=120,120 120w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/unlimited-horizon_pt-2.jpg?resize=200,200 200w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/unlimited-horizon_pt-2.jpg?resize=400,400 400w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/unlimited-horizon_pt-2.jpg?resize=600,600 600w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/unlimited-horizon_pt-2.jpg?resize=900,900 900w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/unlimited-horizon_pt-2.jpg?resize=1200,1200 1200w\" \/>                                                        <\/a>\n                                                    <\/div>\n                                                    <div class=\"flex-grow-1\">\n                                                        <a class=\"font-archivo text-black dark:text-white dark:hover:text-white inline-block hover:text-black focus:text-black text-sm tracking-tight leading-4 font-bold line-clamp-5\" href=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/opinion\/techno-humanist-manifesto-chapter-8-section-2\">\n                                                            What if humans mastered every aspect of nature?                                                        <\/a>\n                                                    <\/div>\n                                                <\/div>\n                                            <\/div>\n                                                                                        <div class=\"block b-css__slide swiper-slide w-72\">\n                                                <div class=\"flex gap-4\">\n                                                    <div class=\"text-bold w-20 flex-shrink-0\">\n                                                        <a href=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/artificial-intelligence\/techno-humanist-manifesto-chapter-8-section-1\">\n                                                            <img decoding=\"async\" width=\"80\" height=\"80\" src=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/THM-8.1-lead-the-unlimited-horizon2.jpg?quality=75&amp;w=80&amp;h=80&amp;crop=1\" class=\"attachment-preview_square_xs size-preview_square_xs\" alt=\"Abstract geometric design with red and black grid patterns, a central white rectangle displaying the text &quot;The Unlimited Horizon,&quot; and the number 8 in the top right corner.\" sizes=\"80px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/THM-8.1-lead-the-unlimited-horizon2.jpg?resize=50,50 50w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/THM-8.1-lead-the-unlimited-horizon2.jpg?resize=80,80 80w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/THM-8.1-lead-the-unlimited-horizon2.jpg?resize=120,120 120w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/THM-8.1-lead-the-unlimited-horizon2.jpg?resize=200,200 200w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/THM-8.1-lead-the-unlimited-horizon2.jpg?resize=400,400 400w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/THM-8.1-lead-the-unlimited-horizon2.jpg?resize=600,600 600w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/THM-8.1-lead-the-unlimited-horizon2.jpg?resize=900,900 900w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/THM-8.1-lead-the-unlimited-horizon2.jpg?resize=1200,1200 1200w\" \/>                                                        <\/a>\n                                                    <\/div>\n                                                    <div class=\"flex-grow-1\">\n                                                        <a class=\"font-archivo text-black dark:text-white dark:hover:text-white inline-block hover:text-black focus:text-black text-sm tracking-tight leading-4 font-bold line-clamp-5\" href=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/artificial-intelligence\/techno-humanist-manifesto-chapter-8-section-1\">\n                                                            AI can dramatically expand human agency                                                        <\/a>\n                                                    <\/div>\n                                                <\/div>\n                                            <\/div>\n                                                                                        <div class=\"block b-css__slide swiper-slide w-72\">\n                                                <div class=\"flex gap-4\">\n                                                    <div class=\"text-bold w-20 flex-shrink-0\">\n                                                        <a href=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/the-material-world\/techno-humanist-manifesto-chapter-7-section-3\">\n                                                            <img decoding=\"async\" width=\"80\" height=\"80\" src=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/the-problem-solving-animal-pt3.jpg?quality=75&amp;w=80&amp;h=80&amp;crop=1\" class=\"attachment-preview_square_xs size-preview_square_xs\" alt=\"A collage featuring cows, a molecule model, charts, machinery, and the text &quot;The Problem-Solving Animal&quot; with the number 7 on a grid background.\" sizes=\"80px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/the-problem-solving-animal-pt3.jpg?resize=50,50 50w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/the-problem-solving-animal-pt3.jpg?resize=80,80 80w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/the-problem-solving-animal-pt3.jpg?resize=120,120 120w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/the-problem-solving-animal-pt3.jpg?resize=200,200 200w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/the-problem-solving-animal-pt3.jpg?resize=400,400 400w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/the-problem-solving-animal-pt3.jpg?resize=600,600 600w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/the-problem-solving-animal-pt3.jpg?resize=900,900 900w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/the-problem-solving-animal-pt3.jpg?resize=1200,1200 1200w\" \/>                                                        <\/a>\n                                                    <\/div>\n                                                    <div class=\"flex-grow-1\">\n                                                        <a class=\"font-archivo text-black dark:text-white dark:hover:text-white inline-block hover:text-black focus:text-black text-sm tracking-tight leading-4 font-bold line-clamp-5\" href=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/the-material-world\/techno-humanist-manifesto-chapter-7-section-3\">\n                                                            Problem-solving is fundamental to human nature                                                        <\/a>\n                                                    <\/div>\n                                                <\/div>\n                                            <\/div>\n                                                                                        <div class=\"block b-css__slide swiper-slide w-72\">\n                                                <div class=\"flex gap-4\">\n                                                    <div class=\"text-bold w-20 flex-shrink-0\">\n                                                        <a href=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/the-material-world\/techno-humanist-manifesto-chapter-7-section-2\">\n                                                            <img decoding=\"async\" width=\"80\" height=\"80\" src=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/LEAD-the-problem-solving-animal-pt2.jpg?quality=75&amp;w=80&amp;h=80&amp;crop=1\" class=\"attachment-preview_square_xs size-preview_square_xs\" alt=\"A collage of scientific and technological images surrounds the text &quot;The Problem-Solving Animal&quot; and the number 7 on a grid-patterned background.\" sizes=\"80px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/LEAD-the-problem-solving-animal-pt2.jpg?resize=50,50 50w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/LEAD-the-problem-solving-animal-pt2.jpg?resize=80,80 80w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/LEAD-the-problem-solving-animal-pt2.jpg?resize=120,120 120w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/LEAD-the-problem-solving-animal-pt2.jpg?resize=200,200 200w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/LEAD-the-problem-solving-animal-pt2.jpg?resize=400,400 400w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/LEAD-the-problem-solving-animal-pt2.jpg?resize=600,600 600w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/LEAD-the-problem-solving-animal-pt2.jpg?resize=900,900 900w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/LEAD-the-problem-solving-animal-pt2.jpg?resize=1200,1200 1200w\" \/>                                                        <\/a>\n                                                    <\/div>\n                                                    <div class=\"flex-grow-1\">\n                                                        <a class=\"font-archivo text-black dark:text-white dark:hover:text-white inline-block hover:text-black focus:text-black text-sm tracking-tight leading-4 font-bold line-clamp-5\" href=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/the-material-world\/techno-humanist-manifesto-chapter-7-section-2\">\n                                                            It\u2019s far too early to call &#8220;peak ideas&#8221;                                                        <\/a>\n                                                    <\/div>\n                                                <\/div>\n                                            <\/div>\n                                                                                        <div class=\"block b-css__slide swiper-slide w-72\">\n                                                <div class=\"flex gap-4\">\n                                                    <div class=\"text-bold w-20 flex-shrink-0\">\n                                                        <a href=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/the-material-world\/techno-humanist-manifesto-chapter-7-section-1\">\n                                                            <img decoding=\"async\" width=\"80\" height=\"80\" src=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/the-problem-solving-animal_compressed.jpg?quality=75&amp;w=80&amp;h=80&amp;crop=1\" class=\"attachment-preview_square_xs size-preview_square_xs\" alt=\"A graphic featuring industrial machinery, a historic portrait, Earth, and the text &quot;The Problem-Solving Animal 7&quot; on a grid background in orange and beige tones.\" sizes=\"80px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/the-problem-solving-animal_compressed.jpg?resize=50,50 50w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/the-problem-solving-animal_compressed.jpg?resize=80,80 80w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/the-problem-solving-animal_compressed.jpg?resize=120,120 120w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/the-problem-solving-animal_compressed.jpg?resize=200,200 200w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/the-problem-solving-animal_compressed.jpg?resize=400,400 400w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/the-problem-solving-animal_compressed.jpg?resize=600,600 600w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/the-problem-solving-animal_compressed.jpg?resize=900,900 900w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/the-problem-solving-animal_compressed.jpg?resize=1200,1200 1200w\" \/>                                                        <\/a>\n                                                    <\/div>\n                                                    <div class=\"flex-grow-1\">\n                                                        <a class=\"font-archivo text-black dark:text-white dark:hover:text-white inline-block hover:text-black focus:text-black text-sm tracking-tight leading-4 font-bold line-clamp-5\" href=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/the-material-world\/techno-humanist-manifesto-chapter-7-section-1\">\n                                                            Predictions of resource scarcity have a fundamental flaw                                                        <\/a>\n                                                    <\/div>\n                                                <\/div>\n                                            <\/div>\n                                                                                        <div class=\"block b-css__slide swiper-slide w-72\">\n                                                <div class=\"flex gap-4\">\n                                                    <div class=\"text-bold w-20 flex-shrink-0\">\n                                                        <a href=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/the-material-world\/techno-humanist-manifesto-chapter-6-section-2\">\n                                                            <img decoding=\"async\" width=\"80\" height=\"80\" src=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/the-flywheel_pt2-thumb.jpg?quality=75&amp;w=80&amp;h=80&amp;crop=1\" class=\"attachment-preview_square_xs size-preview_square_xs\" alt=\"A collage featuring a hand using a smartphone, two men speaking into microphones, a vintage desktop computer, and a graph, with the text &quot;The Flywheel&quot; in the center.\" sizes=\"80px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/the-flywheel_pt2-thumb.jpg?resize=50,50 50w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/the-flywheel_pt2-thumb.jpg?resize=80,80 80w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/the-flywheel_pt2-thumb.jpg?resize=120,120 120w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/the-flywheel_pt2-thumb.jpg?resize=200,200 200w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/the-flywheel_pt2-thumb.jpg?resize=400,400 400w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/the-flywheel_pt2-thumb.jpg?resize=600,600 600w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/the-flywheel_pt2-thumb.jpg?resize=900,900 900w\" \/>                                                        <\/a>\n                                                    <\/div>\n                                                    <div class=\"flex-grow-1\">\n                                                        <a class=\"font-archivo text-black dark:text-white dark:hover:text-white inline-block hover:text-black focus:text-black text-sm tracking-tight leading-4 font-bold line-clamp-5\" href=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/the-material-world\/techno-humanist-manifesto-chapter-6-section-2\">\n                                                            If progress has stalled, we need to know why                                                        <\/a>\n                                                    <\/div>\n                                                <\/div>\n                                            <\/div>\n                                                                                        <div class=\"block b-css__slide swiper-slide w-72\">\n                                                <div class=\"flex gap-4\">\n                                                    <div class=\"text-bold w-20 flex-shrink-0\">\n                                                        <a href=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/energy\/techno-humanist-manifesto-chapter-5-section-3\">\n                                                            <img decoding=\"async\" width=\"80\" height=\"80\" src=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/LEAD-IMAGE_THM-5.3-solutionism-1.jpg?quality=75&amp;w=80&amp;h=80&amp;crop=1\" class=\"attachment-preview_square_xs size-preview_square_xs\" alt=\"Collage with house roof solar panels, abstract spheres, red planets, forest, and industrial smoke, centered text: &quot;Solutionism,&quot; with a checkered background.\" sizes=\"80px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/LEAD-IMAGE_THM-5.3-solutionism-1.jpg?resize=50,50 50w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/LEAD-IMAGE_THM-5.3-solutionism-1.jpg?resize=80,80 80w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/LEAD-IMAGE_THM-5.3-solutionism-1.jpg?resize=120,120 120w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/LEAD-IMAGE_THM-5.3-solutionism-1.jpg?resize=200,200 200w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/LEAD-IMAGE_THM-5.3-solutionism-1.jpg?resize=400,400 400w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/LEAD-IMAGE_THM-5.3-solutionism-1.jpg?resize=600,600 600w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/LEAD-IMAGE_THM-5.3-solutionism-1.jpg?resize=900,900 900w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/LEAD-IMAGE_THM-5.3-solutionism-1.jpg?resize=1200,1200 1200w\" \/>                                                        <\/a>\n                                                    <\/div>\n                                                    <div class=\"flex-grow-1\">\n                                                        <a class=\"font-archivo text-black dark:text-white dark:hover:text-white inline-block hover:text-black focus:text-black text-sm tracking-tight leading-4 font-bold line-clamp-5\" href=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/energy\/techno-humanist-manifesto-chapter-5-section-3\">\n                                                            &#8220;Stopping climate change&#8221; is the wrong goal                                                        <\/a>\n                                                    <\/div>\n                                                <\/div>\n                                            <\/div>\n                                                                                        <div class=\"block b-css__slide swiper-slide w-72\">\n                                                <div class=\"flex gap-4\">\n                                                    <div class=\"text-bold w-20 flex-shrink-0\">\n                                                        <a href=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/the-material-world\/techno-humanist-manifesto-chapter-5-section-2\">\n                                                            <img decoding=\"async\" width=\"80\" height=\"80\" src=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/IMG_4331.png?quality=75&amp;w=80&amp;h=80&amp;crop=1\" class=\"attachment-preview_square_xs size-preview_square_xs\" alt=\"Collage with &quot;Solutionism&quot; text, vintage portraits, smoggy cityscape, glove holding a white mouse, and the number 5, featuring orange and beige geometric patterns.\" sizes=\"80px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/IMG_4331.png?resize=50,50 50w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/IMG_4331.png?resize=80,80 80w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/IMG_4331.png?resize=120,120 120w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/IMG_4331.png?resize=200,200 200w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/IMG_4331.png?resize=400,400 400w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/IMG_4331.png?resize=600,600 600w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/IMG_4331.png?resize=900,900 900w\" \/>                                                        <\/a>\n                                                    <\/div>\n                                                    <div class=\"flex-grow-1\">\n                                                        <a class=\"font-archivo text-black dark:text-white dark:hover:text-white inline-block hover:text-black focus:text-black text-sm tracking-tight leading-4 font-bold line-clamp-5\" href=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/the-material-world\/techno-humanist-manifesto-chapter-5-section-2\">\n                                                            Progress happens because solutions create new problems to solve                                                        <\/a>\n                                                    <\/div>\n                                                <\/div>\n                                            <\/div>\n                                                                                        <div class=\"block b-css__slide swiper-slide w-72\">\n                                                <div class=\"flex gap-4\">\n                                                    <div class=\"text-bold w-20 flex-shrink-0\">\n                                                        <a href=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/the-material-world\/techno-humanist-manifesto-chapter-5-section-1\">\n                                                            <img decoding=\"async\" width=\"80\" height=\"80\" src=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/solutionism-header.jpg?quality=75&amp;w=80&amp;h=80&amp;crop=1\" class=\"attachment-preview_square_xs size-preview_square_xs\" alt=\"A collage featuring scientific diagrams, a man&#039;s face with a mustache, wheat, and industrial imagery, overlaid with the word &quot;Solutionism&quot; and the number 5.\" sizes=\"80px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/solutionism-header.jpg?resize=50,50 50w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/solutionism-header.jpg?resize=80,80 80w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/solutionism-header.jpg?resize=120,120 120w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/solutionism-header.jpg?resize=200,200 200w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/solutionism-header.jpg?resize=400,400 400w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/solutionism-header.jpg?resize=600,600 600w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/solutionism-header.jpg?resize=900,900 900w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/solutionism-header.jpg?resize=1200,1200 1200w\" \/>                                                        <\/a>\n                                                    <\/div>\n                                                    <div class=\"flex-grow-1\">\n                                                        <a class=\"font-archivo text-black dark:text-white dark:hover:text-white inline-block hover:text-black focus:text-black text-sm tracking-tight leading-4 font-bold line-clamp-5\" href=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/the-material-world\/techno-humanist-manifesto-chapter-5-section-1\">\n                                                            Blind optimism is not a cure for blind pessimism                                                        <\/a>\n                                                    <\/div>\n                                                <\/div>\n                                            <\/div>\n                                                                                        <div class=\"block b-css__slide swiper-slide w-72\">\n                                                <div class=\"flex gap-4\">\n                                                    <div class=\"text-bold w-20 flex-shrink-0\">\n                                                        <a href=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/society\/techno-humanist-manifesto-chapter-4-section-2\">\n                                                            <img decoding=\"async\" width=\"80\" height=\"80\" src=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/9-Reclaim-Meaning-Header-Image-For-Article.png?quality=75&amp;w=80&amp;h=80&amp;crop=1\" class=\"attachment-preview_square_xs size-preview_square_xs\" alt=\"Collage featuring hands holding a leaf, overlapping hands, and the text &quot;Reclaim Meaning&quot; with a grid background.\" sizes=\"80px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/9-Reclaim-Meaning-Header-Image-For-Article.png?resize=50,50 50w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/9-Reclaim-Meaning-Header-Image-For-Article.png?resize=80,80 80w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/9-Reclaim-Meaning-Header-Image-For-Article.png?resize=120,120 120w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/9-Reclaim-Meaning-Header-Image-For-Article.png?resize=200,200 200w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/9-Reclaim-Meaning-Header-Image-For-Article.png?resize=400,400 400w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/9-Reclaim-Meaning-Header-Image-For-Article.png?resize=600,600 600w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/9-Reclaim-Meaning-Header-Image-For-Article.png?resize=900,900 900w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/9-Reclaim-Meaning-Header-Image-For-Article.png?resize=1200,1200 1200w\" \/>                                                        <\/a>\n                                                    <\/div>\n                                                    <div class=\"flex-grow-1\">\n                                                        <a class=\"font-archivo text-black dark:text-white dark:hover:text-white inline-block hover:text-black focus:text-black text-sm tracking-tight leading-4 font-bold line-clamp-5\" href=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/society\/techno-humanist-manifesto-chapter-4-section-2\">\n                                                            How to reclaim meaning in a changing world                                                        <\/a>\n                                                    <\/div>\n                                                <\/div>\n                                            <\/div>\n                                                                                <\/div>\n                                <\/div>\n                            <\/div>\n                                                <\/div>\n                <\/div>\n            <\/div>\n        <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"f-block f-block--feature-content-header f-block--tighter b-fch f-block--wide\">\n    <div class=\"f-block__inner\">\n        <div class=\"f-block__content f-block__content--no-grid\">\n                            <div class=\"container px-5 mx-auto gap-x-5 sm:px-7 md:px-10 ftm-grid sm:gap-x-10 md:gap-x-14 lg:mt-8 mb-6 xl:mb-8\">\n                    <div class=\"order-1 col-span-8 lg:col-span-6\">\n                                                <h1 class=\"mb-4 h1 sm:pr-8 md:pr-12 xl:pr-16\">Why progress was so slow, for so long<\/h1>                        <h2 class=\"mb-6 h5 sm:pr-8 md:pr-12 xl:pr-16 xl:mb-0\">The rapid progress of the last few centuries was not a fluke.<\/h2>\n                        <div class=\"mt-3 xl:hidden\">\n                            <div class=\"meta mb-4\">\n\t<div class=\"meta__byline\"><span class=\"cover-text\">By <a href=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/people\/jason-crawford\" class=\"font-bold\">Jason Crawford<\/a><\/span><\/div><div class=\"meta__date meta__date--published\"><time datetime=\"2025-04-22T14:00:00-04:00\"><span class=\"cover-text\">April 22, 2025<\/span><\/time><\/div><\/div>\n                        <\/div>\n                        \n                    <\/div>\n\n       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src=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/THM-chp6_lead_the-flywheel-1.jpg?quality=75&amp;w=330\" class=\"exclude-lazy\" alt=\"Collage with stone tools, a flywheel, a vintage train, and a graph on a grid background; text reads \u201cThe Flywheel\u201d with the number 6 in the top right corner.\" sizes=\"(min-width: 1366px) 488px, (min-width: 834px) calc(33vw - 40px), calc(100vw - 40px)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/THM-chp6_lead_the-flywheel-1.jpg 3200w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/THM-chp6_lead_the-flywheel-1.jpg?resize=768,432 768w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/THM-chp6_lead_the-flywheel-1.jpg?resize=1536,864 1536w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/THM-chp6_lead_the-flywheel-1.jpg?resize=2048,1152 2048w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/THM-chp6_lead_the-flywheel-1.jpg?resize=320,180 320w, 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https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/THM-chp6_lead_the-flywheel-1.jpg?resize=500,281 500w\" \/>                                <\/div>\n                                                            <\/figure>\n                                            <\/div>\n                <\/div>\n                \n                            <div class=\"container px-5 mx-auto sm:px-7 md:px-10 gap-9 hidden xl:grid xgrid-cols-4 xsm:grid-cols-6 xmd:grid-cols-8 lg:grid-cols-10\">\n                    <div class=\"col-span-2 order-4 relative h-0\">\n                        <div class=\"meta mb-4\">\n\t<div class=\"meta__byline\"><span class=\"cover-text\">By <a href=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/people\/jason-crawford\" class=\"font-bold\">Jason Crawford<\/a><\/span><\/div><div class=\"meta__date meta__date--published\"><time datetime=\"2025-04-22T14:00:00-04:00\"><span class=\"cover-text\">April 22, 2025<\/span><\/time><\/div><\/div>\n                    <\/div>\n              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xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" height=\"32\" viewBox=\"0 0 32 32\" width=\"32\">\n  <path d=\"m19 6h5v-6h-5c-3.86 0-7 3.14-7 7v3h-4v6h4v16h6v-16h5l1-6h-6v-3c0-.542.458-1 1-1z\"><\/path>\n<\/svg>\n                <div class=\"sr-only\">\n                    Share Why progress was so slow, for so long on Facebook                <\/div>\n            <\/a>\n        <\/li>\n    <\/ul>\n        <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n        <\/div>\n    <\/div>    \n<\/div>\n\n\n\n\n<p><em>The following is Chapter 6 from the book&nbsp;<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/newsletter.rootsofprogress.org\/p\/announcing-the-techno-humanist-manifesto\"><em>The Techno-Humanist Manifesto<\/em><\/a><em>&nbsp;by Jason Crawford, Founder of the Roots of Progress Institute. The entirety of the book will be published on Freethink, one week at a time. For more from Jason, subscribe to his Substack<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"f-block f-block--inline-newsletter-prompt f-block--tighter b-inp mb-8\">\n    <div class=\"f-block__inner\">\n        <div class=\"bg-gray-100 dark:bg-gray-800 text-black dark:text-white p-5 lg:p-6 xl:p-7 2xl:p-8\">\n            <div class=\"mb-3.5\">\n                <div class=\"font-archivo text-base font-bold leading-tight md:text-base lg:text-lg xl:text-xl md:leading-tight lg:leading-tight dark:text-white mb-0.5\">\n                        Sign up for Roots of Progress Substack \n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n                <div class=\"dark:text-white\">\n                        The history of technology and the philosophy of progress\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n            <div>\n                <a class=\"btn btn--bg-blue\" data-trackeraction=\"click-out\" href=\"https:\/\/newsletter.rootsofprogress.org\/\" target=\"_blank\">\n\t\t\t\tSubscribe now\n\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n            <\/div>\n         <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-chapter-6-the-flywheel\">Chapter 6: The Flywheel<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>If the dramatic progress of the last few centuries is the great boon of history, then the great tragedy of history is in all the centuries prior, when that progress <em>didn\u2019t<\/em> happen. For tens of thousands of years, people toiled, starved, suffered, and died until we finally achieved modern economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Why? Why was progress so slow, for so long? Did it have to be? What caused it to finally accelerate in the modern era? And were the last few centuries a fluke, a lucky windfall of progress, after which we should expect a regression to the mean of slow growth? Or were they part of a trend that we can expect to continue?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Seeking the origin of progress, one is naturally drawn to the Industrial Revolution. This brief span of two generations ushered in a new age of humanity and began to shift the basis of the economy from agriculture and crafts to energy and machines\u2014the most fundamental economic transformation since the advent of agriculture and settled societies some ten thousand years prior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A singular focus on the Industrial Revolution seems to be bolstered by looking at world GDP per capita, which stays relatively flat for thousands of years, only increasing noticeably in the early 1800s, as industrialization began to be broadly felt:<sup>1<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1600\" height=\"1330\" src=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/GDP-long-run-average-copy.jpg?quality=75&amp;w=1600\" alt=\"Line graph showing global average GDP per capita from year 1 to 2023, with a steep increase after 1800 and a sharp rise in the 20th century. Data sources and notes are listed below the graph.\" class=\"wp-image-115966\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/GDP-long-run-average-copy.jpg 1600w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/GDP-long-run-average-copy.jpg?resize=768,638 768w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/GDP-long-run-average-copy.jpg?resize=1536,1277 1536w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/GDP-long-run-average-copy.jpg?resize=320,266 320w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/GDP-long-run-average-copy.jpg?resize=600,499 600w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/GDP-long-run-average-copy.jpg?resize=1000,831 1000w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/GDP-long-run-average-copy.jpg?resize=1400,1164 1400w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/GDP-long-run-average-copy.jpg?resize=330,274 330w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/GDP-long-run-average-copy.jpg?resize=540,449 540w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/GDP-long-run-average-copy.jpg?resize=850,707 850w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/GDP-long-run-average-copy.jpg?resize=175,145 175w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/GDP-long-run-average-copy.jpg?resize=275,229 275w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/GDP-long-run-average-copy.jpg?resize=400,333 400w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/GDP-long-run-average-copy.jpg?resize=360,299 360w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/GDP-long-run-average-copy.jpg?resize=500,416 500w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Looking at this and several related charts with the same pattern, one astute essayist remarked, \u201cmy one-sentence summary of recorded human history is this: Everything was awful for a very long time, and then the industrial revolution happened.\u201d<sup>2<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But the seeker who looks rigorously is unable to find the <em>origin<\/em> of progress in the Industrial Revolution. Agricultural improvements in England began at least a century earlier; the higher productivity that resulted freed up labor for industry.<sup>3<\/sup> That labor was pulled away from the farms by the growth of London, which was noticeable starting in the mid-1500s.<sup>4<\/sup> London\u2019s growth was driven by foreign trade, which was made possible by improvements in ships and navigation made in prior centuries. Fertile ground for the Industrial Revolution was laid by the new scientific culture that was well under development in Europe by 1600,<sup>5<\/sup> and which itself was powered by the Gutenberg movable-type printing press invented in the 1400s. The Industrial Revolution was not the beginning of progress, just the beginning of a new and more intense phase of progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We find progress as far back as we look, even well before our own species, <em>Homo sapiens.<\/em> Technological progress is evident in the archaeological record of stone tools: the earliest tools, from over 3 million years ago,<sup>6<\/sup> are little more than broken rocks with sharp edges; middle-era tools from hundreds of thousands of years ago are more deliberately formed, with a cutting edge all the way around; by the end of the stone age they are made with precision and in a wide variety of specialized forms.<sup>7<\/sup> We can even measure this progress by the length of cutting edge created per weight of material, which increases from 10 mm\/g with some of the oldest techniques, to 25 mm\/g with some of the most advanced.<sup>8<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1600\" height=\"1600\" src=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/THM-chp6_inline_1-FINAL.jpg?quality=75&amp;w=1600\" alt=\"Four detailed black-and-white illustrations of prehistoric stone tools are arranged on a pale background.\" class=\"wp-image-115973\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/THM-chp6_inline_1-FINAL.jpg 1600w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/THM-chp6_inline_1-FINAL.jpg?resize=768,768 768w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/THM-chp6_inline_1-FINAL.jpg?resize=1536,1536 1536w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/THM-chp6_inline_1-FINAL.jpg?resize=320,320 320w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/THM-chp6_inline_1-FINAL.jpg?resize=600,600 600w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/THM-chp6_inline_1-FINAL.jpg?resize=1000,1000 1000w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/THM-chp6_inline_1-FINAL.jpg?resize=1400,1400 1400w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/THM-chp6_inline_1-FINAL.jpg?resize=50,50 50w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/THM-chp6_inline_1-FINAL.jpg?resize=80,80 80w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/THM-chp6_inline_1-FINAL.jpg?resize=120,120 120w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/THM-chp6_inline_1-FINAL.jpg?resize=200,200 200w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/THM-chp6_inline_1-FINAL.jpg?resize=400,400 400w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/THM-chp6_inline_1-FINAL.jpg?resize=900,900 900w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/THM-chp6_inline_1-FINAL.jpg?resize=1200,1200 1200w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/THM-chp6_inline_1-FINAL.jpg?resize=330,330 330w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/THM-chp6_inline_1-FINAL.jpg?resize=540,540 540w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/THM-chp6_inline_1-FINAL.jpg?resize=850,850 850w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/THM-chp6_inline_1-FINAL.jpg?resize=175,175 175w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/THM-chp6_inline_1-FINAL.jpg?resize=275,275 275w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/THM-chp6_inline_1-FINAL.jpg?resize=360,360 360w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/THM-chp6_inline_1-FINAL.jpg?resize=500,500 500w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px\" \/><div class=\"img-caption\"><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Left: chopping tool found in the Duero Valley in Spain, from the Oldowan Industry, 2.9\u20131.7 million years ago. Center: \u201chandaxe\u201d found in the same valley, from the Acheulean Industry, 1.95 million\u2013130 thousand years ago. Right, top: projectile point found in Eastgate, Nevada, less than 5,000 years old. Right, bottom: awl or piercer, found in Cornwall, late Neolithic, dated to 4500\u20132100 BC. Adapted from: Jos\u00e9-Manuel Benito \u00c1lvarez and Portable Antiquities Scheme via Wikimedia, CC BY-SA; Heizer and Baumhoff, \u201cArchaeology of Two Sites at Eastgate\u201d<\/figcaption><\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Progress continued into the agricultural era, and even picked up the pace\u2014which is to say, the pace accelerated from glacial to molasses. Yet some of the most important inventions of history were created in this era:<sup>9<\/sup> crafts such as metalworking, pottery, and glass blowing; textile equipment such as the spinning wheel and the loom; agricultural implements such as the plow and the harrow; watermills and windmills; gears, levers, and pulleys; wagons and ships; writing and printing; swords and cannons; law and corporations; credit and loans. The world of 1700 was vastly advanced beyond the world of 1700 BC, let alone the world of 17,000 BC.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>All of this is obscured by looking at world GDP per capita, for two reasons. First, modern economic growth began in the West, which \u201cbroke out\u201d and raced ahead while much of the world stayed behind until recent decades. Looking at Western countries, even GDP per capita shows signs of gradual acceleration before and through the industrial era. Second, until the modern era the world was stuck in a \u201cMalthusian trap.\u201d Wealth grew so slowly that population was always nipping at its heels\u2014population growth, in fact, was limited by how much food we could produce. When productivity increased, more children could be born, and more survive, but this excess population quickly grew to consume all the excess wealth. Because agricultural productivity was limited by land, and because technological advancement was so slow, any additional labor supplied by the growing population faced severely diminishing returns beyond the carrying capacity of the region. As population thus kept pace with economic growth, GDP per capita grew very slowly, if at all, for long periods of time.<sup>10<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But the growth in knowledge, technology, wealth, infrastructure, and civilizational capabilities was real\u2014even if at first, it mostly just enabled a larger and more powerful society, and transformed the lives of a small elite, rather than creating broad-based prosperity. And those capabilities were a necessary foundation for the economic system that finally would create wealth faster than people and improve the lives of nearly everyone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Thus, we can see the long-term pattern of progress more clearly if we look at total GDP rather than per-capita GDP. And when we do that, we find gradual acceleration over all of human and even pre-human history.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It\u2019s crucial to understand the exact shape of this acceleration, so let\u2019s examine it carefully.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Consider the GDP of the UK over a span of 200 years. We see steady growth\u2014depressions, world wars, and even the 1918 influenza pandemic are barely noticeable as small dents in a fairly smooth, upward-bending curve:<sup>11<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1600\" height=\"1330\" src=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/gdp-1820-to-2019-inflation-copy.jpg?quality=75&amp;w=1600\" alt=\"Line graph showing the United Kingdom's GDP from 1820 to 2019, with steady growth and rapid increase after 1940, reaching over $2 trillion by 2019.\" class=\"wp-image-115965\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/gdp-1820-to-2019-inflation-copy.jpg 1600w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/gdp-1820-to-2019-inflation-copy.jpg?resize=768,638 768w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/gdp-1820-to-2019-inflation-copy.jpg?resize=1536,1277 1536w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/gdp-1820-to-2019-inflation-copy.jpg?resize=320,266 320w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/gdp-1820-to-2019-inflation-copy.jpg?resize=600,499 600w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/gdp-1820-to-2019-inflation-copy.jpg?resize=1000,831 1000w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/gdp-1820-to-2019-inflation-copy.jpg?resize=1400,1164 1400w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/gdp-1820-to-2019-inflation-copy.jpg?resize=330,274 330w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/gdp-1820-to-2019-inflation-copy.jpg?resize=540,449 540w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/gdp-1820-to-2019-inflation-copy.jpg?resize=850,707 850w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/gdp-1820-to-2019-inflation-copy.jpg?resize=175,145 175w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/gdp-1820-to-2019-inflation-copy.jpg?resize=275,229 275w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/gdp-1820-to-2019-inflation-copy.jpg?resize=400,333 400w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/gdp-1820-to-2019-inflation-copy.jpg?resize=360,299 360w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/gdp-1820-to-2019-inflation-copy.jpg?resize=500,416 500w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The curve is exponential. We can tell because when we plot it on a logarithmic y-axis, it becomes a straight line:<sup>12<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1600\" height=\"1330\" src=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/gdp-1820-to-2019-copy.jpg?quality=75&amp;w=1600\" alt=\"Line graph showing the United Kingdom\u2019s GDP growth from 1820 to 2019, increasing steadily from under $100 billion to over $2 trillion (2011 dollars, PPP adjusted).\" class=\"wp-image-115964\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/gdp-1820-to-2019-copy.jpg 1600w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/gdp-1820-to-2019-copy.jpg?resize=768,638 768w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/gdp-1820-to-2019-copy.jpg?resize=1536,1277 1536w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/gdp-1820-to-2019-copy.jpg?resize=320,266 320w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/gdp-1820-to-2019-copy.jpg?resize=600,499 600w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/gdp-1820-to-2019-copy.jpg?resize=1000,831 1000w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/gdp-1820-to-2019-copy.jpg?resize=1400,1164 1400w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/gdp-1820-to-2019-copy.jpg?resize=330,274 330w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/gdp-1820-to-2019-copy.jpg?resize=540,449 540w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/gdp-1820-to-2019-copy.jpg?resize=850,707 850w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/gdp-1820-to-2019-copy.jpg?resize=175,145 175w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/gdp-1820-to-2019-copy.jpg?resize=275,229 275w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/gdp-1820-to-2019-copy.jpg?resize=400,333 400w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/gdp-1820-to-2019-copy.jpg?resize=360,299 360w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/gdp-1820-to-2019-copy.jpg?resize=500,416 500w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>That straight line indicates a constant growth rate, the hallmark of an exponential curve. The steeper the line, the faster the growth; in this case, about 4%\/year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Here is world GDP over the last 2,000 years, also with a logarithmic y-axis:<sup>13<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1600\" height=\"1123\" src=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/GDP-long-run-copy.jpg?quality=75&amp;w=1600\" alt=\"Line graph showing global GDP growth from year 1 to 2023, with significant increases after 1900 and annual growth rates of 0.32%, 1.5%, and 3.7% marked after 1820.\" class=\"wp-image-115967\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/GDP-long-run-copy.jpg 1600w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/GDP-long-run-copy.jpg?resize=768,539 768w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/GDP-long-run-copy.jpg?resize=1536,1078 1536w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/GDP-long-run-copy.jpg?resize=320,225 320w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/GDP-long-run-copy.jpg?resize=600,421 600w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/GDP-long-run-copy.jpg?resize=1000,702 1000w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/GDP-long-run-copy.jpg?resize=1400,983 1400w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/GDP-long-run-copy.jpg?resize=330,232 330w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/GDP-long-run-copy.jpg?resize=540,379 540w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/GDP-long-run-copy.jpg?resize=850,597 850w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/GDP-long-run-copy.jpg?resize=175,123 175w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/GDP-long-run-copy.jpg?resize=275,193 275w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/GDP-long-run-copy.jpg?resize=400,281 400w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/GDP-long-run-copy.jpg?resize=360,253 360w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/GDP-long-run-copy.jpg?resize=500,351 500w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Here, even on a logarithmic chart, the line is not straight: it bends upward. This is not exponential growth, but <em>super<\/em>-exponential; not a constant growth rate, but growth even in the rate of growth itself.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This super-exponential pattern is found as far back as anyone has looked, back to the early stone age.<sup>14<\/sup> Below are estimates of growth rates plotted against the size of the economy, each on a logarithmic axis.<sup>15<\/sup> Each data point is labeled with the year it is from. I have annotated this chart with groupings for each major era of economic history. Roughly, annual growth rates were less than a hundredth of a percent in the stone age, a fraction of a percent in the agricultural age, and single-digit percentage points in the industrial age:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1600\" height=\"1600\" src=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/THM-chp6_inline_2-1.jpg?quality=75&amp;w=1600\" alt=\"Scatter plot showing annualized GWP growth rate versus GWP level, with data points from -2000000 to 2010 and three major clusters highlighted by large ellipses.\" class=\"wp-image-115972\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/THM-chp6_inline_2-1.jpg 1600w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/THM-chp6_inline_2-1.jpg?resize=768,768 768w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/THM-chp6_inline_2-1.jpg?resize=1536,1536 1536w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/THM-chp6_inline_2-1.jpg?resize=320,320 320w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/THM-chp6_inline_2-1.jpg?resize=600,600 600w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/THM-chp6_inline_2-1.jpg?resize=1000,1000 1000w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/THM-chp6_inline_2-1.jpg?resize=1400,1400 1400w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/THM-chp6_inline_2-1.jpg?resize=50,50 50w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/THM-chp6_inline_2-1.jpg?resize=80,80 80w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/THM-chp6_inline_2-1.jpg?resize=120,120 120w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/THM-chp6_inline_2-1.jpg?resize=200,200 200w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/THM-chp6_inline_2-1.jpg?resize=400,400 400w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/THM-chp6_inline_2-1.jpg?resize=900,900 900w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/THM-chp6_inline_2-1.jpg?resize=1200,1200 1200w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/THM-chp6_inline_2-1.jpg?resize=330,330 330w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/THM-chp6_inline_2-1.jpg?resize=540,540 540w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/THM-chp6_inline_2-1.jpg?resize=850,850 850w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/THM-chp6_inline_2-1.jpg?resize=175,175 175w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/THM-chp6_inline_2-1.jpg?resize=275,275 275w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/THM-chp6_inline_2-1.jpg?resize=360,360 360w, https:\/\/www.freethink.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/THM-chp6_inline_2-1.jpg?resize=500,500 500w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>We might question the data, as most of these figures are reconstructions based on scant evidence.<sup>16<\/sup> But Nobel laureate economist Paul Romer proposes a simple thought experiment:<\/p>\n\n\n<div \n\tclass=\"f-block f-block--blockquote f-block---simple f-blockquote border-l-10 border-gray-200 pl-7 dark:border-gray-800 dark:text-gray-200 text-gray-800 f-content\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<p>Suppose the modern rate of growth of real GDP per capita (that is the growth rate after taking out the effects of inflation) is equal to 2% per year and that income per capita in year 2000 is $40,000. If this rate had prevailed for the last 1000 years, then in the year 1000, income per capita measured in the purchasing power of dollars today would have been $0.0001, or 0.01 cents. This is way too small to sustain life. \u2026<\/p>\n<p><!-- \/wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --><\/p>\n<p>Reasonable people can differ about what the future holds, but the simple calculation that first got me thinking about this \u2026 leaves no room for doubt about what happened in the past. The rate of growth of GDP per capita has increased over time. The rate of progress in standards of living has increased even more.<\/p>\n<p><!-- \/wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --><\/p>\n<p>Because the logic is so clear, there has never been any serious debate about the historical fact that is the basis for the question about speeding up.<sup>17<\/sup><\/p>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Romer and Chad Jones, in a 2010 paper, cited \u201caccelerating growth\u201d as one of six major facts that should motivate the research agenda of economics in the coming decades.<sup>18<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The constant growth rate of an exponential curve is generated by a system where the mechanism of growth is invariant with scale. A classic example is a biological population (in the absence of resource constraints): the mechanism of growth is the reproductive faculty of the individual organism. Each female gives birth to a certain number of offspring, which does not depend on the size of the population. Similarly, a savings account grows exponentially if each dollar invested earns a constant rate of return, regardless of the size of the account.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This is also a good approximation of an economy over the short run. But over the long run, the mechanisms of economic growth are themselves improved by growth.<sup>19<\/sup> <em>Progress compounds.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Consider some key drivers of growth, and think about how they have been strengthened over time:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Total investment in research, development, and new ventures,<\/strong> both financial capital and human capital<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Science and technology,<\/strong> the base of knowledge and processes we have to work from<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Industrial infrastructure,<\/strong> in energy, manufacturing, and transportation, the base from which we turn ideas into products and services<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Communication and computation,<\/strong> our ability to spread, process, and recombine ideas and information<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Market size,<\/strong> the potential demand for any new product or service<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Institutions<\/strong> that make progress possible, from government to corporations to universities to banks<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>These factors are self-reinforcing, in a system of multiple, overlapping feedback loops. The growth of the world economy creates more surplus wealth to plow into R&amp;D, which creates better technology, which raises productivity, which creates a bigger economy and more surplus. Better science helps us create new technology, which helps create better scientific instruments, which help advance science. Better communications and transportation infrastructure expands the scope of markets; larger markets support greater investment in all kinds of infrastructure, including better communications and transportation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Our institutions are part of the feedback loop, too: the development of corporations in the 1600s, research universities in the 1800s, and venture capital in the 1900s were all in response to needs generated by the advance of science, technology, and the economy; and these developments in turn helped accelerate that advancement. Even our ideas about progress itself are motivated by prior progress and help steer and drive future progress. When Francis Bacon exhorted his contemporaries in 1610 to believe in the possibility of scientific progress and to devote their efforts to it, he pointed to past discoveries and inventions as evidence, such as the compass, silk, gunpowder, and the printing press;<sup>20<\/sup> his philosophy motivated scientists for generations to come.<sup>21<\/sup> When Vannevar Bush called for investment in basic research, it was justified by the idea that science was the foundation of national prosperity and security.<sup>22<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The nature of such self-reinforcing feedback loops is that they are very hard to get going, because you start from a low level of capability\u2014but as they speed up, they gain almost unstoppable momentum. Envision a massive flywheel, gathering energy from the turns of a small engine. Due to the inertia of the wheel, each turn of the engine makes only a small impact on its speed; at first not much seems to be happening at all. But the compounding investment of energy into the wheel eventually accelerates it to enormous velocity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So, why was progress so slow for so long, only recently reaching modern levels of growth? Because that is the nature of accelerating growth: it is relatively slow for a long time before reaching any given level; no matter where you are in the process, it will be the case that most of the progress was made recently. As early as 1780, Benjamin Franklin was feeling the acceleration when he remarked on \u201cthe rapid progress true science now makes,\u201d yet even he would be astounded to see what we have done since with his electricity.<sup>23<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To make this mechanism vivid, let\u2019s look at a case study of one invention and its struggle to be born: the threshing machine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Threshing is a crucial step in the processing of wheat after it is harvested: breaking open the hard outer shell of the wheat kernel in order to get at the grain inside. For thousands of years, this was done through manual labor with hand tools, or using draft animals.<sup>24<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It was not a stroke of genius to imagine that a machine could lighten this load. Water mills had been used since antiquity for a later stage of wheat processing: grinding grain into flour.<sup>25<\/sup> By the Middle Ages, mills were used for many mechanical tasks, such as sawing lumber, pumping bellows, or fulling cloth.<sup>26<\/sup> The idea of a threshing machine specifically is mentioned in English royal documents as early as 1636.<sup>27<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What is difficult is to make a threshing machine work reliably. Whereas grinding, sawing, and fulling are tasks requiring mostly brute force, threshing requires a certain amount of delicacy and precision. When inventors began seriously attempting to solve the problem in the 1700s, some of their machines bruised the grain, or broke the ears off the wheat instead of opening them up.<sup>28<\/sup> Other machines simply broke.<sup>29<\/sup> To make a working, reliable machine took careful construction and craftsmanship.<sup>30<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>By the late 1700s, there were working threshing machines, but there were only a few craftsmen who could make them, and so they were available only to a few local farmers. One source reported as of 1800 that \u201calmost all the threshing machines in England\u201d had been built by one \u201cindustrious workman, of the name of Stevenson.\u201d<sup>31<\/sup> It would be a few more decades before threshing machines gained wide adoption.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If the threshing machine was not hard to conceive, then why wasn\u2019t it invented much earlier\u2014say, in the 1300s?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>First, there was no established professional class of inventors, engineers, or entrepreneurs. Farmers themselves, busy with farm work from dawn to dusk, had little time to tinker, and little spare cash for materials. Skilled craftsmen, especially those with mechanical skill such as millwrights, were relatively rare.<sup>32<\/sup> Even they had little chance to educate themselves beyond apprenticeship: printed materials and mechanics\u2019 institutes would come centuries later.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If an inventor did come up with a workable design for a threshing machine, there would still be the challenges of constructing reliable devices mentioned above. There were no machine tools to create precision parts. Wood is too soft for precision work, but metal was expensive, and cast iron probably didn\u2019t even exist in Europe at that time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Beyond manufacturing, there would be challenges of distribution. At the time there were no newspapers to advertise in, and no reliable postal service by which to receive orders. Shipping product by wagon over bumpy, rutted roads, or even by canal, was slow, expensive, and hazardous\u2014especially for a delicately tuned machine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Even if these obstacles could be overcome, to create even a small factory would require investment capital. There were no VCs or investment banks to provide the capital, and no way to set up a corporation to receive it. There was no patent office to apply to for intellectual property, to protect the investment; although if our inventor had favor at court, he might be able to snag a royal monopoly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Social forces, too, created headwinds for invention. There were taboos against labor-saving devices.<sup>33<\/sup> New machines were fought and opposed by the laborers who felt threatened by them, who in many cases smashed and burned machinery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Because of all these factors, medieval craftsmen with mechanical skill found it more prestigious and lucrative to make clockwork novelties for the aristocracy than to address mass markets with practical inventions. Even in the 1700s, when inventors were turning their attention to the threshing problem, they didn\u2019t attempt to set up manufacturing and distribution: newspaper advertisements of the time announced that they would sell the plans or parts; the customer was expected to employ their own workman to do the construction. By the early 1800s, threshing machines were being constructed in machine shops originally set up to build steam engines, with the specialized tools and skilled workers needed for precision manufacturing.<sup>34<\/sup> And by the mid-1800s, railroad networks were built out that could distribute centrally manufactured products to a wide region. This is right around when threshing machines became widely adopted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So an array of factors\u2014human capital, manufacturing facilities, transportation networks, communications channels, legal and financial institutions, social attitudes and conventions\u2014conspired against the threshing machine and held it back until the 1800s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We can see some of the same factors at work against other inventions conceived ahead of their time\u2014such as Babbage\u2019s computing machine, dreamed up a century before the electronics technology that would make it practical, or many of da Vinci\u2019s sketches, which are suggestive of machines such as helicopters or tanks that would only be possible centuries later. And the patterns are even stronger the further back we look in history. The wheelbarrow, for instance, is a useful, simple device, but it was missing from Europe for over a thousand years;<sup>35<\/sup> it seems clear that the same factors can explain this gap.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If we think all the way back to the stone age, it\u2019s not surprising that a million years might pass before a major change to stone tools. Not only were there no inventors, no businesses, and no markets\u2014there was no writing, no cities, no large-scale human communication at all. The main way for an idea to persist was to be taught as oral heritage, and the main way for it to spread was through the descendants proliferating. Better tools were almost biological features, and progress was more like natural evolution than human technology. Indeed, we can imagine that better tools were invented many times and then lost, either because someone failed to pass on the tradition to their descendants, or because a tribe died out instead of spreading.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Today, in contrast, it\u2019s impossible to imagine any gap such as the wheelbarrow or the threshing machine persisting for more than a matter of years. There\u2019s a whole professional class of entrepreneurs looking for such problems, and data on industrial processes and cost drivers to highlight them. There are professional engineers supported by a deep manufacturing infrastructure, from standard parts to computer-aided design software. New products can instantly address a global market using the internet and worldwide shipping networks. New ventures can be created and funded in days through standard legal documents and payment mechanisms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It is the compounding effect of all these factors that explains why progress was so slow in the past, and the gradual acceleration of progress along a super-exponential curve.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The rapid progress of the last few centuries, then, was not a fluke or a lucky windfall. It is simply the continuation of a trend that goes back to the dawn of humanity. The causes are fundamental: accelerating growth is created by structural mechanisms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Progress is not automatic or inevitable. Trends do not always continue. Despite the overall pattern of progress, history also contains many episodes of stagnation, regress, and even collapse. And as we\u2019ll examine in later chapters, some of the drivers of progress have already gone into reverse. Progress requires choice, effort, and vigilance. But we should expect that it can continue. And perhaps it can even continue to accelerate, creating progress in the future that is faster than anything in history.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p>1: OWID, \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/ourworldindata.org\/grapher\/global-average-gdp-per-capita-over-the-long-run\">Global Average GDP Per Capita Over the Long Run<\/a>.\u201d This and the other OWID charts carry a footnote: \u201cInternational dollars are a hypothetical currency that is used to make meaningful comparisons of monetary indicators of living standards. Figures expressed in constant international dollars are adjusted for inflation within countries over time, and for differences in the cost of living between countries.\u201d More here: OWID, \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/ourworldindata.org\/what-are-ppps%20\">What are PPP Adjustments<\/a>?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>2: Meuhlhauser, \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/lukemuehlhauser.com\/three-wild-speculations-from-amateur-quantitative-macrohistory\/%20\">Three Wild Speculations from Amateur Quantitative Macrohistory<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>3: Allen, \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.jstor.org\/stable\/2599937\">Tracking the Agricultural Revolution in England<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>4: Howes, \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ageofinvention.xyz\/p\/age-of-invention-the-pull-of-cities\">Age of Invention: The Pull of Cities<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>5: Mokyr, <em>The Gifts of Athena<\/em>, 28-40; Jacob, <em>Scientific Culture and the Making of the Industrial West<\/em>, 105-111.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>6: Harmand et al, \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/nature14464%20\">3.3 Million Year Old Stone Tools<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>7: Whitaker, <em>Flintknapping<\/em>, Kindle location 338-590.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>8: Muller and Clarkson, \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/journals.plos.org\/plosone\/article?id=10.1371\/journal.pone.0167244\">Major Transitions in the Evolution of Lithic Cutting Edge Production Rates<\/a>,\u201d Fig. 2.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>9: Look at OWID, \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/ourworldindata.org\/grapher\/gdp-per-capita-maddison-project-database?tab=line&amp;yScale=log&amp;time=earliest..2019&amp;country=~GBR\">GDP Per Capita, 1000-2019<\/a>,\u201d or Jones and Romer, \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/web.stanford.edu\/~chadj\/JonesRomer2010.pdf%20\">The New Kaldor Facts<\/a>,\u201d Figure 2.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>10: Roser, \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/ourworldindata.org\/breaking-the-malthusian-trap%20\">Breaking out of the Malthusian Trap<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>11: OWID, \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/ourworldindata.org\/grapher\/gdp-maddison-project-database?tab=chart&amp;time=1820..2019&amp;country=~GBR\">Gross Domestic Product<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>12: Ibid, annotated with dotted line.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>13: OWID, \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/ourworldindata.org\/grapher\/global-gdp-over-the-long-run?yScale=log\">Global GDP Over the Long Run<\/a>,\u201d annotated with dotted lines and growth rates calculated from the underlying data for the periods 1\u20131000, 1000\u20131500, 1500\u20131820, 1820\u20131950, and 1950\u20132023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>14: Delong, \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/delong.typepad.com\/print\/20061012_LRWGDP.pdf\">Estimates of World GDP, One Million B.C.-Present<\/a>\u201d; Hanson, \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/mason.gmu.edu\/~rhanson\/longgrow.pdf\">Long-term Growth as a Sequence of Exponential Modes<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>15: Roodman, \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/papers.ssrn.com\/sol3\/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4074164%20\">Revisiting Hanson\u2019s Long-Term Growth<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>16: Guinnane, \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/papers.ssrn.com\/sol3\/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3906412%20\">We Do Not Know the Population of Every Country in the World for the Past Two Thousand Years<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>17: Romer, \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/paulromer.net\/speeding-up-and-missed-opportunities-evidence\/\">Speeding Up and Missed Opportunities<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>18: Jones and Romer, \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/web.stanford.edu\/~chadj\/JonesRomer2010.pdf%20\">The New Kaldor Facts<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>19: Others have expressed this theory before, including Kurzweil, \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.writingsbyraykurzweil.com\/the-law-of-accelerating-returns\">The Law of Accelerating Returns<\/a>,\u201d and Roodman, \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.openphilanthropy.org\/research\/modeling-the-human-trajectory\/%20\">Modeling the Human Trajectory<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>20: Bacon, <em>Novum Organum<\/em>, CX.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>21: Mokyr, <em>A Culture of Growth,<\/em> 70ff.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>22: Bush, \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/nsf-gov-resources.nsf.gov\/2023-04\/EndlessFrontier75th_w.pdf\">The Endless Frontier<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>23: Franklin, \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/founders.archives.gov\/documents\/Franklin\/01-31-02-0325%20\">From Benjamin Franklin to Joseph Priestley, 8 February 1780<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>24: Quick and Buchele, <em>The Grain Harvesters<\/em>, 11, 39-40.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>25: Usher, <em>History of Mechanical Inventions<\/em>, 161\u201370.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>26: Usher, <em>History of Mechanical Inventions<\/em>, 184\u20136; Sass, <em>The Substance of Civilization<\/em>, 149\u201350, 152.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>27: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.google.co.uk\/books\/edition\/English_Patents_of_Inventions_Specificat\/TYiHGvsaepsC?hl=en&amp;gbpv=0\"><em>English Patents of Inventions<\/em><\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>28: Somerville, <em>General View of the Agriculture of East Lothian<\/em>, 76; Ransome, <em>The Implements of Agriculture,<\/em> 140.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>29: Somerville, <em>Agriculture of East Lothian<\/em>, 75; Quick and Buchele, <em>The Grain Harvesters<\/em>, 45.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>30: Crawford, \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/blog.rootsofprogress.org\/why-did-we-wait-so-long-for-the-threshing-machine\">Why Did We Wait So Long for the Threshing Machine?<\/a>\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>31: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.google.co.uk\/books\/edition\/The_Commercial_Agricultural_and_Manufact\/45xfAAAAcAAJ?hl=en&amp;gbpv=1\"><em>The Commercial Agricultural and Manufacturer&#8217;s Magazine<\/em><\/a>, 3\u20134.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>32: Morgan et al, \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.journals.uchicago.edu\/doi\/abs\/10.1086\/720890%20\">The Mechanics of the Industrial Revolution<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>33: Jacob, <em>Scientific Culture and the Making of the Industrial West<\/em>, 68.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>34: Crawford, \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/blog.rootsofprogress.org\/why-did-we-wait-so-long-for-the-threshing-machine\">Why Did We Wait So Long for the Threshing Machine?<\/a>\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>35: Medieval sources attest to the wheelbarrow only in the late 12th century; although it was known in ancient China and perhaps ancient Greece: Lewis, \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.jstor.org\/stable\/3106255\">The Origins of the Wheelbarrow<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>We\u2019d love to hear from you! If you have a comment about this article or if you have a tip for a future Freethink story, please email us at&nbsp;<a href=\"mailto:tips@freethink.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">tips@freethink.com<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Progress was agonizingly slow for most of human history, but the rapid progress of the last few centuries was not a fluke.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":25,"featured_media":115971,"template":"","ftm_taxonomy_fields":[79],"ftm_taxonomy_challenges":[],"ftm_taxonomy_statuses":[],"ftm_taxonomy_hidden_tags":[1965],"class_list":["post-115962","ftm_article","type-ftm_article","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","ftm_taxonomy_fields-economics"],"acf":[],"apple_news_notices":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v26.9) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Why progress was so slow, for so 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